With then-No. 5 North Carolina losing to Florida State last week and NC State beating Duke, the upcoming rivalry game in Chapel Hill this Saturday has turned into a top-25 matchup with the No. 14 Heels hosting the No. 23 Wolfpack.
The UNC defense has not helped its offense much, giving up 98 points combined in its last three games, including 45 in a win against Virginia Tech, so the Pack should be able to move the ball effectively, even with a new quarterback.
NC State QB Bailey Hockman
Redshirt sophomore Devin Leary provided a huge spark for the Pack offense, but after breaking his fibula in the game against Duke, NC State has turned back to redshirt junior Bailey Hockman to line up behind center.
Hockman started the year against Wake Forest, throwing for 191 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the 45-42 home win that relied heavily on the running game. However, the trip to Blacksburg, Virginia to take on the Hokies of Virginia Tech was a totally different story; going seven-for-16 passing for 82 yards and two interceptions before being replaced by Leary.
There isn’t much of another option, although Hockman certainly deserves to get the first crack at finishing the season. Freshman Ben Finley is now listed as the No. 2 on the depth chart, but head coach Dave Doeren really wanted to let him develop in the weight room and on the field for a year before throwing him into the fire.
Fortunately for NC State, the Tar Heels don’t exactly have a lockdown defense against the rush, giving up 150-plus yards per game on the ground, including 260 against Virginia Tech and 241 in their loss to Florida State last week. Hockman should take a back seat with UNC allowing only 218 passing yards per game.
Bold Prediction: Less than 20 completions for less than 200 yards for Hockman
Knight and Person vs. UNC Linebackers
This is exactly the matchup that strong running back rooms dream of: a rival team with a sluggish run defense. As mentioned above, Virginia Tech and Florida State went well over 200 yards in UNC’s last two games.
Yes, the Hokies have the second-best rushing attack in the country and average almost 7 yards per carry, but FSU isn’t that far ahead of NC State in terms of rushing yards per game, at 183.4 and 241 yards, respectively. And that average for the Seminoles drops to 163.5 yards when taking out the Jacksonville State game, where they ran for 263 yards.
With a less explosive arm at quarterback, running backs sophomore Zonovan Knight and junior Ricky Person Jr., who average 73 and 64.6 yards per game respectively, need to lead the charge for the rest of the season.
Bold Prediction: 100 yards each for Knight and Person
WRs and TEs vs. UNC Secondary
With Leary out, the group of pass-catchers is going to take a major hit in terms of numbers; Hockman cannot provide the same explosiveness. The only question is if he can do enough to prevent opposing defenses from packing the box against the running game, and that test starts right away.
The Tar Heels allowed over 300 yards passing to Boston College, but less than 200 yards to both Florida State and Syracuse, while only allowing one opposing play to go over 100 yards this year. In the game UNC lost, Florida State didn’t have a single player with more than two catches, and while only six players caught passes, four had a reception of over 30 yards.
Expect a similar game plan from NC State: Using an effective running game to open up the deep ball later.
Bold Prediction: Five catches for longer than 25 yards
Pack O-line vs. UNC D-line
North Carolina averages three sacks per game, just below the 3.2 mark NC State’s defense sits at, while the Pack’s offensive line is allowing 2.4 per game after getting beat three times while hosting Duke last Saturday.
Virginia Tech and Florida State sit at 1.5 and 3.2 sacks allowed per game, respectively, and each allowed just one sack in their matchups with UNC. With the lean on the running game, Hockman won’t even have to drop back much until later in the game if the Pack is behind.
(Not so) Bold Prediction: Two sacks allowed
