Before the Duke game, the No. 23 NC State-No. 14 UNC game Saturday at noon in Chapel Hill was not only going to be one of the premier rivalry games in the ACC this season but was also set to feature two of the best young quarterbacks in the country: redshirt sophomore Devin Leary and fellow sophomore Sam Howell.
But it won’t be Leary at the helm of the Wolfpack offense; instead, it’ll be redshirt junior Bailey Hockman. And what was once going to be a competitive affair between two evenly-matched teams now has the potential to get ugly quickly. Even if it isn’t a blowout, the play from Hockman will almost certainly result in a Tar Heel win one way or another.
With NC State on offense:
If the Wolfpack offense wants to make it a competitive game, it needs to heavily feature the running game. In the last game against Duke, the running game was used very lightly. Junior Ricky Person Jr. led the way with 73 net yards on 14 carries, which isn’t great production, but it’s good enough to beat opponents like Duke. It was sophomore Zonovan Knight who was noticeably left out of the backfield for much of the game after an early fumble against the Blue Devils, toting the ball only 10 times for 44 net yards.
Perhaps the duo will be fresh against UNC, but it will have to find a way to get past quarterback-turned-linebacker Chazz Surratt, UNC’s leader on defense and an All-ACC (and perhaps All-American) candidate at the position.
On a normal day, the matchup between the NC State wide receivers and the UNC secondary would be an intriguing one and one where the wide receivers may actually hold the advantage. Between the soft hands of freshman Porter Rooks, the speed of redshirt junior Thayer Thomas and the power-forward skills of senior Emeka Emezie, there’s a lot to like from this receiver crop against the outmatched Tar Heels.
If there’s anything Hockman has going for him, it’s that at least he’ll have plenty of time to make decisions in the pocket. UNC doesn’t offer much in the name of a pass rush, with 12 sacks on the year over four games. That isn’t a bad total, but it isn’t good for a team competing for an ACC crown, and only four of them came from the Tar Heel defensive line, which means most of the sacks have come from linebackers or corners on blitz packages.
The NC State’s offensive line has played pretty well overall this season, so if it keeps up that play, and if the coaches use some tight-end sets to help the offensive line or stick a running back in the backfield to pass protect, the threat of a Tar Heel pass rush is as good as gone.
With North Carolina on offense:
As for the Tar Heel offense, let’s just say there’s a reason why North Carolina was ranked as high as No. 5 this season. Head coach Mack Brown and offensive coordinator Phil Longo have their fingerprints all over the offense, but it’s Longo’s most important addition that has made UNC a power to be reckoned with in the ACC: the institution of the air raid offense.
As a result of instituting the air raid, no wide receiver dominates the stat sheet like they normally might at blue-blood schools, even in schools with pass-happy offenses. Dyami Brown leads all UNC skill positions, with almost 300 receiving yards, but six others have at least 80. It’s what makes the air raid so difficult to cover; when you take out Brown, Beau Corrales or Dazz Newsome, Sam Howell is still probably going to throw it somewhere you didn’t expect him to. So wherever Howell decides to throw it, the guy he’s throwing to is probably wide open.
With the defenses covering deep against UNC all season, opposing teams have left open lanes for the Tar Heel running backs to run wild. Michael Carter has 478 rushing yards and two touchdowns. What’s crazy is how his teammate Javonte Williams also has over 400 yards and seven touchdowns.
Keep in mind that NC State’s Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr. have a little less than 700 yards combined on the season, and that’s with them playing an extra game. Redshirt sophomore Payton Wilson had an excellent game against Duke, registering 19 tackles and two interceptions. He’ll get a lot of tackles against UNC too, but not after Carter and Williams get some big gains first.
There isn’t much to say about the NC State pass rush; stats never tell the whole story, but when they line up perfectly, it can be hard to ignore. NC State has 16 sacks over five games, a little over three per game. Sam Howell has been sacked 11 times over four games, a little less than three a game.
Conventional wisdom should say that Howell might hit the dirt around three times against the Wolfpack, so unless they happen to be three strip-sacks or three safeties, those three sacks will be fairly harmless for the North Carolina offense if they prepare enough for them. If so, it’ll be a fairly average day in the office for the Wolfpack pass rush and the Tar Heel pass protection.
If NC State gets the Bailey Hockman who played so well against Wake Forest this season, then maybe the Wolfpack faithful do have hope for a competitive game against UNC, and maybe even a win against the Tar Heels. But so far, in Hockman’s collegiate career, the Wake Forest game has been the exception, not the rule, and he hasn’t returned to being that calm, steady quarterback since then.
Prediction: UNC 31, NC State 13
