Despite the shortened season, bettors have a pretty good idea about what teams are and what they are not at this point in the season. With some teams having already finished the regular season, the slate of games is pretty short, but there’s still some good value on a number of lines. I expect Coastal Carolina and Texas to beat up on far inferior opponents. Meanwhile, Minnesota should at least keep it close against a Nebraska team that hasn’t impressed many this year.
Coastal Carolina (-13.5) at Troy
While Coastal Carolina is coming off its best win of the year, it certainly didn’t blow BYU away. The Cougars came 1 yard away from a last-minute, game-winning touchdown, but the Chanticleers proved itself as one of the best Group of Five teams. Coastal Carolina ranks first in both scoring defense and offense in the Sun Belt Conference. Despite only slightly above average yardage numbers, the Chanticleers know how to control the score.
Troy is a solid, but not great, team. The Trojans offense is very one dimensional as it ranks second in passing yards per game but ninth in rushing yards per game in the Sun Belt. Its defense is slightly below average, ranking sixth in both rush and pass defense in the conference. Overall, Troy is a pretty uninspiring team standing in the way of a team that can actually see a path to a New Year’s Six bowl for the first time in school history.
Pick: Coastal Carolina (-13.5)
Texas (-30) at Kansas
Kansas has long been the laughing stock of the Power Five conferences. There appeared to be light at the end of the tunnel when Les Miles came out of retirement to bring his coaching and name recognition to Lawrence, Kansas. The shine of that hire has worn off, and we are still left with an awful Kansas football team. Here are just a few statistics in which Kansas ranks last in the Big 12: scoring offense, scoring defense, passing offense and rushing defense. It appears the only thing Kansas leads the conference in is punts, which it does by a wide margin with 69 on the year.
On the other side of the field we have a very solid Texas team. As usual, the Longhorns came into the season with expectations based on its history and not the current state of the program, but Texas has had a respectable season, going 6-3 thus far. The Longhorns have a very good passing game led by Sam Ehlinger and put up a lot of points. Kansas stopped Texas Tech from blowing them out last week, but there’s no reason to believe the Jayhawks can continue this trend.
Pick: Texas (-30)
Minnesota at Nebraska (-10.5)
While I’m not super high on Minnesota or Nebraska, I do not believe that either can cover a double-digit spread. After a season-opening loss to Michigan, the Golden Gophers have performed as expected. It lost a nail-biter to Maryland, got blown out by Iowa and beat Purdue and Illinois. Minnesota relies on a strong offense to overcome its anemic defense.
Nebraska has an opposing style but is a similar team. Instead, the Cornhuskers rely on a strong defense to overcome its paltry offense. Nebraska has also had a similarly predictable season. It had a somewhat surprising loss to Illinois, but no one expected much more than a season that hovered near or below .500 for the Cornhuskers.
Pick: Minnesota (+10.5)
Last week, staff writer Kevin Sebastian went 2-1 with his bets. NC State pulled out a 10-point win over Georgia Tech, which gave the Pack a narrow win against the spread, and Indiana pulled out a surprising eight-point victory despite being two touchdown underdogs against Wisconsin. However, Oklahoma and Baylor did have a defensive battle, by Big 12 standards, and only put up 41 points combined to miss the over by more than 20 points.
Wolfpack Wager Record: 12-18
Kevin Sebastian: 2-1
Bryan Pyrtle: 2-1
Camden Speight: 3-3
Andy Mayer: 4-6
Will Thronhill: 1-5
Ben Ellis: 0-3
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