The NC State baseball team is off to a historically good start. The Pack is 21-4 overall and 7-2 in the ACC, and in first place in the conference, and even has a two-game lead in the Atlantic Division.
The Wolfpack is a consensus top-10 team in national polls after starting the season unranked in all but one poll. After falling short in three straight regional finals, it’s fair to ask what this start to the season means.
Nobody is surprised that this team is good. Going back to 2012, head coach Elliott Avent has led the team to the College World Series once, super regionals once, three regional championship games and just one team missed the postseason in its entirety.
Totaling five teams that essentially finished in the AP top 25 in six years, it’s no shock Avent has another solid team.
The Pack was expected to be a regional team, at worst, and the first four weeks of the season showed just that would be the case. However, the Wolfpack took it to another level when it traveled to Clemson and dominated the 10th-ranked Tigers in a three-game sweep, where the games weren’t really close, especially on Friday and Saturday.
For historical context, the Pack’s sweep at Clemson on March 18 was only the fifth time Clemson has been swept at home in the last 10 years — Louisville in 2017, Miami in 2014, UNC-Chapel Hill in 2012 and Virginia in 2011.
Those four teams went a combined 91-28 in ACC play the year they swept the Tigers, all four of those teams hosted regionals and three of those four teams held national seeds in the NCAA tournament. Not to mention each team was ranked in the top eight in the country at the end of the season, and two of them, the Cardinals and Cavaliers, advanced to the College World Series.
The most interesting thing about the above stats is that only one of those teams is in the Atlantic Division and plays Clemson every year, Louisville.
Since 2009, Clemson has hosted 25 Atlantic division series and this was the second time the Tigers have been swept. Florida State is arguably the most consistent baseball program in the country. The Seminoles have hosted a regional seven years in a row, and haven’t swept Clemson in any of those years, home or away.
The Wolfpack is well on its way to hosting a regional this year, and potentially even a super regional if it maintains this pace.
In 2016, the Wolfpack was 15-13 in the ACC and hosted a regional. NC State won six of the 10 series.
In 2013, the Pack went 19-10 in the ACC and 6-3 in ACC series (only two games were played against FSU). As for 2018, this group is well on its way to surpassing the 2016 regular season, and maybe even 2013, so it’s fair to expect this team will host a regional as the postseason approaches.
The issue with the 2018 season is this: nothing that this team does in the regular season will matter if it disappoints in the postseason.
NC State fell just short in the past three regional finals, despite promising regular season campaigns.
The bottom line is that in order for this season to be considered a success, the Wolfpack has to win a regional, no matter what happens in the regular season.
Nonetheless, an ACC championship would be impressive, but would it be enough to overshadow falling short in the regional? Maybe, but the ACC champion likely would have an excellent chance to advance to Omaha, let alone winning a regional, so a loss would be disappointing.
The Pack definitely has the talent to advance deep into the postseason. The Wolfpack leads the ACC in batting average and is lapping the league in slugging percentage and home runs.
The Pack is slugging 50 points higher than the second place team, Georgia Tech, and 100 points more than the third place team, Florida State. To further put things into perspective, the Seminoles are slugging 75 points higher than Virginia, in last place.
Pitching was the question coming into the season, and remains the question, if only because the batting has been phenomenal. The pitching has been good, but needs consistency even the Wolfpack is second in the ACC in ERA.
Based on what we’ve seen so far this year, and from the history of previous teams sweeping the Tigers in Clemson, this team has what it takes to put the past three years behind them and advance.
How far can Avent’s group advance? Time will tell, but this looks like a team that can do things that haven’t been done in Raleigh in the ACC, and make a deep run in June.
