The NC State men’s basketball team has the opportunity to make history on Saturday as it welcomes UNC-Chapel Hill to PNC Arena.
The Wolfpack (16-8, 6-5 ACC) stunned the Tar Heels (18-7, 7-5 ACC) on Jan. 27 in the Smith Center, 95-91, in overtime, and with a win Saturday the Pack would sweep UNC for the first time since 2003.
However, NC State needed a career-high 29 points from graduate guard Allerik Freeman, and a 50-percent clip from beyond the arc to pull off the improbable; furthermore, the Heels are riding high after vanquishing archrival No. 9 Duke on Thursday.
Assistant Sports Editor Nick Sinopoli interviewed Daily Tar Heel Staff Writer Parth Upadhyaya to break down the rematch before the Tobacco Road rivals meet in Raleigh.
After losing three straight games, the Tar Heels bounced back with two convincing wins over Pittsburgh and No. 9 Duke. Who or what has been the source of UNC’s turnaround?
I think a huge part of UNC’s turnaround has been its improved perimeter defense. During the three-game skid (against Virginia Tech, NC State and Clemson), the Tar Heels allowed both the Wolfpack and Tigers to shoot an absurd 50 percent from three. The Hokies shot 40 percent from the 3-point line against UNC. Not many teams can win games when they allow their opponents to get that hot from beyond the arc.
North Carolina did a bit of a better job against Pittsburgh and Duke, holding them to 33.3 percent and 36 percent from 3-point land, respectively. Credit also has to be given to the play of junior guard Kenny Williams. Williams combined for just 14 points on 1-for-9 3-point shooting in UNC’s three-game losing streak. The junior guard flipped a switch in the past two games, though — he tallied 35 points and hit nine of his 17 3-point attempts.
Senior guard Joel Berry II, UNC’s second-leading scorer, was held to just 6 points in the first tilt with the Pack. What does he need to do differently in order to have an impact in this game?
A lot of Berry’s struggles during UNC’s first game against NC State were due to the pestering defense of sophomore guard Markell Johnson. If Williams and graduate transfer Cam Johnson can have an impact on the wings, the Wolfpack won’t be able to only key in on Berry defensively. Another factor could be how much of a rhythm junior forward Theo Pinson can get into. If Pinson is playing well and drawing defenders outside of the paint, it can help clear the lane for Berry to get easy looks.
Outside of the obvious heroics of Berry, forward Luke Maye and forward Theo Pinson, who are the x-factors on this squad?
The other x-factors on this UNC team are the other two starters — Williams and Johnson, who have both caught fire as of late. When Williams gets in a rhythm, he is the Tar Heels’ best shooter.
Johnson has scored in double-digits in UNC’s last four games, including a 32-point outburst against Clemson. The graduate transfer had a late start to his season due to a knee injury, but has since found his groove in ACC play. With Johnson and Williams drawing defenders, the floor opens up for Berry and Maye to operate.
As we talked about before in our first Q&A with The Daily Tar Heel, the Heels rank in the top 10 in the country in rebounding margin (No. 6), defensive rebounds per game (No. 6), offensive rebounds per game (No. 90) and total rebounds (No. 1). Though UNC often boasts a small-ball lineup, how are they able to dominate the glass?
North Carolina’s ability to still control the backboards, even while playing its “death lineup” is a credit to a collective effort to crash the glass. However, it starts with Maye, who is often the lone big man on the floor. The junior forward is averaging 10.2 rebounds a game, which is second in the ACC behind Duke’s Marvin Bagley III. Alongside Maye in the frontcourt is Pinson, who has played bigger than his 6-foot-6 size all season. Even when playing out of position at power forward, Pinson has held his own. The senior from Greensboro is averaging six rebounds per game. He’s had dominating performances on the glass, such as a 13-rebound effort against Pittsburgh and a 15-rebound game against NC State.
What went wrong for the Heels the first time they faced the Wolfpack on Jan. 27 and what can they do to prevent the season sweep on Saturday?
UNC got torched by NC State’s perimeter play in the first matchup. The Wolfpack hit 15 of its 30 3-point attempts and graduate transfer Al Freeman didn’t miss from the 3-point line, going 7 for 7. However, if the Tar Heels bring a similar defensive intensity to the one they brought against the Blue Devils on Thursday night, it will go a long way in slowing down the Wolfpack.
Sophomore center Omer Yurtseven also gave UNC fits in the paint. Too many times Maye was left to guard Yurtseven one-on-one on the low block — leading to an easy bucket for the Turkish seven footer. Yurtseven finished the game with 16 points and 13 rebounds. In North Carolina’s matchup with Duke, Pinson was given the assignment of Duke’s most potent low-post scorer, Bagley. Pinson fronted Bagley in the post, denying easy entry feeds. I would expect head coach Roy Williams to let Pinson primarily defend Yurtseven throughout the game.
North Carolina will have to lock down on NC State’s 3-point shooters and find an answer for Yurtseven to avoid a season sweep for the first time in the Williams coaching era.
What’s your final score prediction in this rematch?
The Wolfpack has shown it can compete with any team in the country when it is playing at its best. NC State has knocked off then top-10 ranked Arizona, Duke and UNC this season. UNC wasn’t playing great basketball until it got a much needed confidence-boosting win against Duke on Thursday night. Although a one day gap between two very emotional games is not ideal, I think the Tar Heels will carry their new-found swagger into PNC Arena on Saturday.
I expect the game to be a battle, with a lot of scoring, similar to the teams’ first matchup in Chapel Hill. NC State will put up a fight well into the second half, but UNC will eventually pull away for a comfortable 84-70 win.
