The NC State men’s basketball team is in a much better position seven games into the ACC season than fans, and probably even head coach Kevin Keatts, could have imagined. The Pack is squarely in the conversation for the NCAA Tournament, which is an improvement over the last two years, and pretty surprising given that the roster was put together at the last minute.
Last year, State had played itself out of even having a chance to make the big dance by this point. The team sat at 2-5 in conference, coming off of a 1-2 homestand against three of the worst ACC teams. In the eighth game, State pulled off the stunning upset of Duke in Durham, but then only won one more game the rest of the way. Two years ago, the team was 1-6 after seven ACC games.
The Pack’s record is only a slight improvement, but there are two big differences. One, NC State already has the quality wins needed to be on the radar of the selection committee. Two, the Pack has already navigated past the most difficult part of the schedule; it’s smooth, or at least smoother, sailing from here.
State plays nine top-20 RPI, the most important ranking to the committee, games all season and has already played six of those, winning three of them against Duke, Clemson and Arizona. The remaining three games are a home and an away game against UNC-Chapel Hill and a home game against Louisville.
If the Pack wins one of those three, it will have four top-20 RPI wins, which will almost assuredly be better than any other team that would be on the bubble come selection time. Of course, the RPI could change, but State will still have plenty of quality wins to hang its hat on.
While quality wins won’t be an issue, the quantity of wins could become one. To have any shot at the tournament, the Pack has to get to 8-10 in the ACC, minimum, and would still probably need an ACC Tournament run. Going .500 in the ACC, plus one win in Brooklyn at the conference tournament likely gets the job done. A 10-8 ACC record will likely guarantee the Pack in the tournament.
Looking at the remaining schedule, there’s not a team that the Pack can’t beat. Winning at UNC-Chapel Hill seems unlikely, but the Heels return to PNC Arena two weeks after State’s trip to the Dean Dome, a game the Pack could absolutely steal. It’s tough to beat any ACC team twice in two weeks, as Clemson learned when it beat State by 16 points at home and then returned to PNC Arena 12 days later and lost.
Every other road game is winnable, and State will have to improve its 0-3 road record. The Pack needs to beat Pittsburgh and either Wake Forest or Georgia Tech on the road. Any other road win would be gravy on top.
State has been formidable at home and will need to continue on that. If the Pack can go 4-1 in remaining home games against Notre Dame, UNC, Boston College, Florida State and Louisville, none of which will be pushovers, but all of which are beatable, then it will be positioned well for the tournament. Two road wins and four home wins will put the team at nine conference wins headed to the ACC tournament.
The main reason State is in this position is the play of the young guys, particularly sophomore center Omer Yurtseven and the three point guards, sophomore Markell Johnson and freshmen Braxton Beverly and Lavar Batts Jr. This team was expected to be led by the older players, notably senior forward Abdul-Malik Abu and graduate guard Allerik Freeman, but the future of the team has taken over in the present.
Yurtseven has turned into a star. He is in contention to be an All-ACC player and first-round NBA Draft pick. He dominated Duke, forcing the Blue Devils to bench likely first-round pick Wendell Carter Jr. early in the second half for a walk-on. He followed that performance up with a career-high 29 points against Clemson. On Sunday against Miami, he poured in 28 points. The offense runs through the big man.
Johnson missed seven games due to suspension, but he changes the whole dynamic of the team. He’s the best athlete, defensive player and passer. He doesn’t need to score to help the team win.
Batts is a spark plug off the bench and a non-stop ball of energy on the court. When the Pack was down by double digits early against Duke, Batts picked the team up and got State back in the game.
Beverly is the steady hand. He always makes the right play and is the best shooter on the team.
Led by these four young players, the Pack has positioned itself to make the NCAA Tournament in the first year under Keatts.