Heading into a bye week fresh off a thrilling overtime win over rival UNC-Chapel Hill, the NC State men’s basketball team sits firmly entrenched on the postseason bubble.
If the Wolfpack (15-7, 5-4 ACC) can manage to survive the rest of the season without any shocking losses (and that is a big “if” considering years’ past), the Pack should have as compelling a postseason argument as any other bubble team based on its top-tier wins.
The Wolfpack currently holds four wins over RPI top-50 teams (Duke, Arizona, Clemson, UNC), with three of those wins coming against AP top-10 teams in the Blue Devils, Wildcats and Tar Heels. With four games left on the schedule against RPI Top 50 teams, and a date at home with Notre Dame, NC State has a great opportunity to further pad a resume that could rival any team in the country.
NC State also has a handful of “good” losses that the selection committee will likely chalk up to competitive efforts against respective teams and not punish the Wolfpack too harshly for. A close neutral loss to Tennessee in the Battle 4 Atlantis tourney, a road loss to No. 2 Virginia and a nail-biting home loss in a shootout versus then-No. 25 Miami likely won’t come back to haunt the Wolfpack too much.
However, the NCAA tournament selection committee will certainly not be overlooking the Wolfpack’s bad losses, of which there are a few. A home loss to UNC-Greensboro, a lopsided 30-point loss on the road at Notre Dame (without preseason ACC Player of the Year candidate Bonzie Colson), and an early-season loss to Northern Iowa could be detrimental to the Wolfpack’s hopes of getting into the big dance.
The majority of NC State’s resume-building wins should remain good wins throughout the remainder of the season.
Duke and Arizona both look like title contenders, and UNC is likely to finish the season ranked despite losing two straight. Unfortunately for Wolfpack fans who have come to view Clemson as a big rival, the Wolfpack’s tournament chances could be contingent on the Tigers’ success.
The Wolfpack should be cheering for Clemson over the last six weeks of the season, as a significant portion of its resume relies on the Tigers’ continued success. The Wolfpack was able to secure a one-point win at home against Clemson one week after suffering a 16-point loss on the road in Littlejohn Coliseum. If Clemson finishes the season strong and becomes a tournament lock, the Wolfpack’s series split will look significantly better than if the Tigers falter down the stretch and become a bubble team.
Historically speaking, with the resume of wins it currently has, if NC State is able to get to 20 wins, its postseason hopes should be fairly secure heading into Selection Sunday in March. The Wolfpack’s last NCAA tournament team, the 2014-15 team that knocked off No. 2 seed Villanova on its way to the Sweet Sixteen, was 20-13 with three wins over ranked opponents heading into the NCAA tournament.
This iteration of the Wolfpack currently has four wins over ranked opponents, with remaining games against the Heels and Florida State, both of which could be ranked when NC State plays them.
These featured games are crucial for the Wolfpack to use to add to its list of wins over ranked squads. The Wolfpack also has two additional games, versus Syracuse and Louisville, against teams in the RPI Top 50.
The road to the tournament is clear for the Pack: take care of business against teams the Wolfpack should be better than, i.e. Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College and Georgia Tech, and steal a game from UNC, the Orange, Seminoles or Cardinals. Also, avoiding a first-round exit in the ACC tournament could go a long way as well.
However, another bad loss especially against a team the Wolfpack is clearly better than, and head coach Kevin Keatts’ squad could find itself on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday on March 11.
Of course, all of this could be for naught if the Wolfpack is able to go on a 2011 UConn-esque tournament run to win the ACC and secure an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament, something that hasn’t happened in over 30 years. The last time the Wolfpack won the ACC, Vinny Del Negro was named tournament MVP after No. 6-seed NC State stunned the No. 1-seed Tar Heels in the 1987 ACC Tournament final.
The Wolfpack begins the home stretch of its season on Feb. 3 in PNC Arena against Notre Dame.
