It’s completely valid to associate overreacting and irrational thought processes with the vast majority of fans surrounding collegiate or professional sports.
But every once in awhile, facts and numbers allude us because of perception. Under the oath of fairness and honesty, the case of Tom O’Brien is one of the rare examples anyone will find in recent college football history.
It would be rather reckless to advocate the firing of O’Brien, but the truth is there are severe underlying issues with State’s football program at the moment. They are issues several time zones apart from injuries or Russell Wilson. And for the most part, they are issues far greater than anything concerned with game day guidance from O’Brien, offensive coordinator Dana Bible, defensive coordinator Mike Archer, or anyone else on the coaching staff.
As simple as it is painful to watch, nobody can compete in major college football without depth.
State has a lot of nice, talented football players, and if football came down to one team’s 22 starters battling another team’s 22 starters, the Pack has a legitimate shot at fighting for an Atlantic Division title.
But there is no one in the country that can progress if the team picture of the next best 20 players includes tumbleweeds. It’s impossible to dissect exactly how detrimental this actually is, but perhaps the fact Florida State played 25 more players than State did on Saturday offers some perspective. In fact, the average number of players who touched the field for each ACC team this past Saturday was exactly 50 players, and State played the fewest of anyone in the conference (39).
It’s not exactly the sexiest topic to talk about, but it’s a bigger problem than anyone would like to admit. The Wolfpack only played 17 people besides the offensive and defensive starters, and the reason is that State, regardless of injuries, doesn’t even come remotely close to having enough horses in the stable.
And nothing has contributed more to why O’Brien’s imminent job security revolves around whether he can beat Carolina on Saturday or if he can get State to a bowl game. If he fails to do either in this season’s closing statement, Athletics Director Deborah Yow has a difficult decision to make, and that final evaluation would include a lot of firm historical evidence marking O’Brien’s tenure as a disappointment.
In his first five seasons as coach, Chuck Amato compiled a 39-23 (20-20 ACC) record with three bowl victories, three All-Americans and 12 NFL draft picks. O’Brien, 63, has not yet completed that entire time frame, but nonetheless can not touch any of those numbers. In his fifth year, O’Brien is 29-29 (15-21 ACC) with one bowl victory, one All-American and seven NFL draft picks.
And before Amato ? Dick Sheridan, State’s head coach from 1986-1992, spent his first five years going 34-23-2 (23-16-1 ACC) with two bowl wins, four All-Americans and 12 NFL draft picks. Following Sheridan was Mike O’Cain , who posted eerily similar numbers to what O’Brien currently has – a 28-29 (18-22 ACC) record with one bowl win, two All-Americans and 10 NFL draft picks. Hurting O’Cain’s cause was the fact his teams went 0-5 versus Carolina during that span.
However nice it is to look at concrete numbers, the point goes far beyond the fact O’Brien is statistically one of, if not the worst, Wolfpack coach since the mid-80’s.
The bottom line is the product everyone sees late in the 2011 season should reflect the state of the program, and let’s be honest – the product is mediocre, at best. Yes, the one season State went relatively unscathed with injuries was the one season O’Brien’s team finished above .500. It’s a comforting thought, but considering State lost to middle-of-the-pack opponents like Clemson and East Carolina, while blowing double digit leads to Virginia Tech and Maryland, 9-4 is one of the worst outcomes O’Brien could have generated with the talent he had.
Imagine if one of those talented players like Owen Spencer or Nate Irving actually suffered an injury. While highlighted more this season than last, the players coming off of the bench are mostly two-star recruits.
Two-star recruits that a school like North Carolina, who has absolutely no idea who will coach its team in 2012, has barely even touched. According to Rivals.com , in the past six recruiting classes (each one in O’Brien’s tenure) the Pack has successfully recruited more than double the amount of two-star athletes UNC has.
“Stars” in recruiting are certainly not permanent ratings as to how an individual will develop (Rivals also listed Russell Wilson as a two-star recruit), but if you ever wondered why UNC has more depth than State, receiving commitments from better athletes is a nice place to start.
No matter the reason, the bottom line to all of this confusion is that O’Brien’s teams have not had enough depth of talent during his tenure, and essentially every stats agrees. Yow can’t justifiably fire a coach who goes 5-0 against his team’s arch rival or goes to a bowl game in two straight seasons, and it would be a coin flip decision if those two objectives missed their respective boats.
But, either way, State football is going to have to change.
