The Atlantic Coast Conference set a March Madness record with six teams advancing to the Sweet 16 after its member teams won 12 of 13 games in the first week of tournament play.
Of the conference’s seven teams to be selected to the field, only Pittsburgh failed to advance, losing 47-43 to Wisconsin in the first round. By comparison, only one of the Pac 12’s seven tournament teams survived to the Sweet 16, despite all receiving seeds of eight or higher.
The strength of the ACC had been questioned for much of the season, as most of its teams played weak nonconference schedules and could therefore only be compared against one another. The conference has not only bucked its doubters but has danced its way into historical territory and may continue to break records when tournament play resumes.
Top seeds UNC-Chapel Hill and Virginia took care of business as expected, but other teams had to fight and claw their ways to the Sweet 16 and received some help from upsets elsewhere in the bracket.
In the Midwest, 10-seed Syracuse appeared destined for a tough matchup with powerhouse Michigan State, but Middle Tennessee State pulled off one of the most improbable upsets in NCAA tournament history — beating the Spartans in the first round — giving the Orange an easy pass onto the Sweet 16.
Elsewhere in the second round, Notre Dame was fortunate to face 14-seed Stephen F. Austin, who was coming off of an upset win over three-seed West Virginia. The Fighting Irish didn’t make it look easy, but a basket in the final seconds gave them a one-point victory (76-75).
Duke also struggled to get by despite its favorable matchups. The four-seeded Blue Devils trailed UNC-Wilmington by seven points in the first half and appeared to be in trouble before putting together a 14-0 run early in the second half. In the second round, they benefitted from the first-round upset 12-seed Yale staged over five-seed Baylor and put down the Bulldogs by a modest seven-point margin of victory (71-64).
The other ACC team to reach the Sweet 16, Miami (FL), won its second-round game in an extremely back-and-forth affair over Wichita State. The Hurricanes jumped out to a 27-6 to start the game before eventually surrendering the lead midway through the second half. The Hurricanes had enough steam to shrug off the Shockers’ 22-4 scoring run and win 65-57.
If four of these six ACC teams win their Sweet 16 matchups, the conference will break the record for teams placed in the Elite Eight. According to FiveThirtyEight, UNC and Virginia are the only clear favorites to defeat their upcoming opponents — Indiana and Iowa State, respectively — but the others all have a fair shot, with an average win likelihood of 45 percent. The mean result of the website’s simulations would put three teams into the Elite Eight, which would tie the all-time record.
Miami (FL) has the toughest matchup, facing off against two-seed Villanova, who demolished seven-seed Iowa by 19 points in the second round. The Hurricanes will ride the hot hand of senior guard Angel Rodriguez, who is averaging 26 points over two tournament games thus far.
FiveThirtyEight gives UNC the best chance of advancing (73 percent) as forward Brice Johnson attempts to solidify his resume for National Player of the Year. Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon currently appears to be his main competition for the honor.
The cumulative probability of any of the conference’s teams winning the championship is 41 percent, so there’s a good chance that the national champion comes from the ACC for the second consecutive season. While UNC and Virginia account for the majority of that probability, don’t count out any of the dark horse candidates who have already beaten the odds to get to the Sweet 16.
