With the regular season in the books and the automatic bids from each conference awarded, the NCAA selection committee gathered on Sunday to reveal this year’s national tournament bracket.
As usual, some deserving teams were exempt from the field, others were seeded too highly and many potential Cinderellas fell into attractive first-round matchups — all of which you’ll be keen to keep in mind when formulating your own bracket projections this week.
Kansas, Oregon and the ACC’s UNC-Chapel Hill and Virginia were awarded top seeds, with Oregon being the most questionable choice on the part of the committee.
The Ducks are coming off of an obliteration of No. 12 Utah in the Pac-12 Championship, but have struggled on the road all season long, posting a 7-6 record, which includes losses to sub-par squads like UNLV and Boise State. They’re fortunate to be slotted into the West bracket, where they’ll have an opportunity to play in nearby Spokane, Washington for their first two games, but they’ll only move further from home thereon out.
If Oregon advances to the Sweet 16, it’ll face a tough matchup against what will likely be either Duke or Baylor, though the Blue Devils’ first opponent, 13-seed UNC-Wilmington, is no pushover. The Seahawks played their way in through the CAA tournament and are a balanced squad in all facets of the game. Size disparity may dissuade you from this popular upset pick; however, Duke has the nation’s seventh tallest lineup and Wilmington just the 274th.
One likely upset in the West bracket is the 7-vs-10-seed matchup between Oregon State and VCU. The Beavers are another Pac-12 team that has struggled on the road (4-8), and the Rams from Richmond are simply a more consistent team, with only two double-digit point losses on their 24-10 season so far. The victor should soon thereafter be dismissed by two-seed Oklahoma, led by Naismith College Player of the Year candidate Buddy Hield, so don’t sweat this decision too much.
UNC has the easiest path to the Sweet 16 of any team, as neither of its potential second-round opponents, USC and Providence, appear capable of staging an upset and were probably seeded too highly at eight and nine.
The Tar Heels will keep an eye on four-seed Kentucky, who they may collide with in that very round. The Wildcats played more like the Wildcards during the meat of their schedule, dropping games to lowly Auburn before nearly upsetting the tournament’s top seed, Kansas. They’ve since settled into their groove and enter the tournament with the hottest offense in the country, as well as some unfinished business to take care of after last year’s disappointing conclusion.
In the bottom portion of UNC’s East bracket, three-seed West Virginia is the favorite despite their subordinate rank to two-seed Xavier. Had the result of the Mountaineers’ loss to Kansas in the Big 12 championship been reversed, they likely could have earned a one-seed. They don’t have the traditional look of a powerhouse team, getting by with ugly offensive play, but their press defense has forced more turnovers than any other in the country and will force opponents out of their comfort zones.
Virginia’s Midwest region includes an odds-on 11-over-6-seed upset according to FiveThirtyEight, which gives Gonzaga a 60 percent chance of taking down Seton Hall.
The Midwest’s three-seed, Utah, was yet another Pac-12 team to be overrated by the committee and shouldn’t be counted on to last beyond the Sweet 16, despite a favorable first round matchup.
Michigan State, perhaps the most dangerous two-seed in the tournament and led by likely Player of the Year Denzel Valentine, should come out of the bottom half of the bracket. The Spartans are on a nine-game winning streak and setting out to prove that they shouldn’t have been overlooked for a top seed. They also haven’t failed to reach at least the Sweet 16 since the 2010-2011 season.
The South region features the top overall seed, Kansas, who has an almost perfect resume with the lone exception of an inexplicable 86-67 loss to Oklahoma State, who otherwise went 2-15 in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks haven’t lost a game since January and are the surest pick to reach the Elite 8 among one-seeds.
Wichita State and Vanderbilt face off in the region’s play-in game and will be dangerous if they make it into the bracket. Ken Pomeroy’s computer ratings rank Wichita State as the 12th-best team in the country and they demolished three-seed Utah back in December. Don’t get carried away, but the Shockers are a sneaky Cinderella pick to reach the Sweet 16.
Tune into TruTV Tuesday beginning at 6:40 p.m. to catch the first play-in game and then CBS at 12:15 p.m. on Thursday for the real start to March Madness as Duke takes on UNC-Wilmington. If you’ll be in class, take comfort in knowing that the madness lasts until midnight and will continue on until Sunday before a three-day reprieve.
