According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and University of North Florida’s Dance Card project, which has correctly predicted 141 of the last 146 at-large NCAA Tournament bids, the ACC is leading all conferences with nine teams on the right side of the bubble right now.
Getting so many teams into the field would be a major statement for a conference that has enjoyed renewed relevance on the national stage in recent years with the additions of programs such as Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, all of which are included in both of these highly regarded postseason forecasts.
With time winding down before March and Selection Sunday (March 15 at 6 p.m.) arrive, let’s take a look around the conference and see which teams are solidly in the field and which still have work left to do to earn their spot.
Locks
No. 2 North Carolina (19-3, 8-1 ACC) has perhaps the most solid resume in the ACC and is slated as a one-seed by Lunardi. However, this prediction came before the Tar Heels suffered a 71-65 road loss to Louisville Monday night, their first since Dec. 12, breaking a 12-game winning streak and 8-0 start to conference play.
Nonetheless, North Carolina remains in contention for a top seed and will get a chance to prove itself down the stretch with road games against Notre Dame, Virginia and Duke. The team’s eight-deep rotation is back to full strength, so there is no excuse if they are unable to come up with wins in at least two of these three pivotal matchups.
Other teams in contention for high seeds are No. 9 Virginia (17-4, 6-3 ACC), No. 17 Miami (16-4, 5-3 ACC) and No. 19 Louisville (18-4, 7-2 ACC).
Virginia got off to a slow start in conference play, dropping two of its first three games, but it has since rattled off wins in five of six games, four of which came against likely tournament teams. The most impressive performance, a 63-47 drumming of Louisville on the road, may have catapulted the Cavaliers into the one-seed discussion.
Miami has beaten more tournament-caliber teams than any other ACC squad, but an 85-69 loss to NC State is going to make the committee pause before rewarding the Hurricanes with a two or three seed. Lunardi currently has them in the four-spot, which sounds about right for the moment. They host both Virginia and Louisville in the same week of late February; these will be opportunities to erase the doubt incited by the embarrassing loss to the Wolfpack.
Louisville most recently hosted Virginia and North Carolina in consecutive games and came out with a loss and a win. For a Cardinals team that came into conference play with no wins against a respectable team, that probably does more good for their resume than bad. Seven of their final nine conference games will be against likely tournament teams.
On the Bubble
The list of ACC teams on the bubble is extensive. The safest bet is probably Duke (15-6, 4-4 ACC), simply because Coach K’s teams don’t miss the postseason and they pass the eye test, despite dropping four of their previous five games. The Blue Devils are one of the youngest teams in the country, and that shows up in their lack of defensive discipline, but they have the offensive firepower to keep up with any team in the country.
Others who are all but guaranteed a spot in the field are Pittsburgh (17-4, 6-3 ACC) and Notre Dame (15-6, 6-3 ACC). Both are eight-seeds in Lunardi’s most recent bracket, though the Panthers have no marquee wins to their name. Contrastingly, the Fighting Irish have a worse record, but have the more impressive win, a 68-62 victory over one-seed likely and No. 5 Iowa at a neutral site.
Those who have work left to do are Clemson (13-8, 6-3 ACC), Syracuse (15-8, 5-5 ACC) and Florida State (15-7, 5-5 ACC). Clemson has torn up some of the best competition the ACC has to offer, but the committee is likely to be split on the Tigers due to their horrendous nonconference performance. Both Syracuse and Florida State have been on roller coaster rides this season, so it’s anyone’s guess as to how they’ll perform leading up to selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech (12-9, 2-6 ACC) and NC State (12-11, 2-8 ACC) both have an outside shot, but have been terribly unlucky this season and likely have too much ground to make up considering their lackluster records. Each have been involved in an inordinately large number of close games and have typically come out on the wrong side so, despite their redeeming qualities, the committee won’t be able to overlook what could be losing records for both teams come season’s end.
