Now five weeks into the NFL season, you’ve likely gotten a good grasp of your fantasy team’s strengths and weaknesses, discovered which players are going to give you lineup anxiety all year, and perhaps you’ve been caught bragging about that late-round sleeper that you just knew would pan out — even though he was auto-picked while you got up to re-warm the last slice of pizza. But this is not the time for complacency; it’s make-or-break time for your fantasy playoff hopes.
There are plentiful strategies out there for those hoping they can reverse the fortune of their season, but the best bet is to take stock, determine your priorities for improvement, hawk over the waiver wire and execute some masterful trades. Here are some tips for doing just that.
Knowing your team is a prerequisite to improving it, so be honest with yourself. I’m sorry that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers aren’t airing it out quite as much as you hoped, but holding onto him at all costs just because he’s Aaron Rodgers will not help matters. That’s not to say his stats won’t improve — they might — but his offense has looked less explosive against some dismal defenses. Logic dictates that he’s not likely to trend up as he begins facing tougher opponents.
Maybe its best you trade him to that arrogant Packers fan in your league, pick up a steadier but less flashy quarterback and swap into a better starting running back while you’re at it. Most of the opponents in your league probably spend more time watching highlight videos than performing data analysis when considering trades—use this against them.
Paying attention to injuries and suspensions around the league is another way to find an easy steal via trade or the waiver wire. If you had DeAngelo Williams on your roster before Le’Veon Bell returned from suspension, you’d be remiss if you didn’t try to dump off the then fifth-ranked running back on an unsuspecting league member. When Tom Brady returned from injury in Week 5, the value of all New England receivers should immediately rise, including tight end Rob Gronkowski, who put up 109 yards upon Brady’s return a week after reeling in just one 11-yard grab.
Another law that must always be obeyed is that of regression to the mean: fantasy players’ output will tend towards their scoring average in the long-term. An immediate example that should come to mind is Julio Jones’ Week 4 explosion. Just a week before putting up 300 yards on 12 receptions before the Panthers, the Falcons receiver was performing far below his career averages—three receptions, 63 yards, and two-thirds of a score per game. The week after the stunning performance, he managed just 29 yards against the Broncos.
The lesson: Be wary of spectacular performances and, more importantly, buy low and sell high. Jones’ quarterback Matt Ryan was near a fantasy scoring record pace before being mostly shut down in Week 5. Jest receiver Brandon Marshall had been struggling through three weeks before showing up for over 200 yards and two touchdowns in the past two games combined.
Currently, receivers like Houston’s Deandre Hopkins and the Giants’ Odell Beckham Jr. are performing far below their average. They most likely didn’t forget how to play football; maybe they had a tough schedule which could get easier down the stretch. With their value down, now is the time to propose a trade to their owners. If you’re fortunate enough to have an over-performer on your roster, like Oakland’s Michael Crabtree or Detroit’s Marvin Jones, you could probably throw them in as bait and get another solid starter out of the trade.
Most fantasy players stress the importance of the draft, but veterans know that any roster can be salvaged by season’s end if you have a keen eye for where your roster can be improved and know the means by which to acquire more talent. Replace your weak links, look at the stat-line rather than the name-line, don’t make a trade that will benefit your division rival and you can quickly turn a 1-4 or 2-3 start into a powerhouse come playoff time.
