Republicans have a long list of things that they want to accomplish since President Barack Obama took office. The year 2016 is meant to be a year in which the Republican Party is determined to make a dynastic restoration: winning the presidential race and staying in control of both chambers of Congress.
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the GOP is not defeating Democrats. Instead, the reality is that the conflict between the party’s establishment and movement led by grassroots is tearing the GOP apart. Some might be confused which side truly represents the Republican Party and real conservatism. A senior editor of The Atlantic, David Frum, pointed out the GOP’s problem in his essay, “The Great Republican Revolt,” that “the angriest and most pessimistic people in America are the people we used to call Middle Americans,” who are not so poor and yet not rich. Their despair is reflected in questions of many national polls, with a perception that life in America used to be better for people like them.
Most of these people support Donald Trump, not because Trump is an ideological conservative, but because Trump’s rhetoric better speaks to their anger and frustration. This phenomenon reveals the theory that the presidential election is all about the middle-class Americans, contrary to the notion that only Democrats care about the middle class. In fact, both parties need them to win the election. Trump’s supporters do not lean toward Democrats in the fear that their wealth will be taken to redistribute to people who they think are less deserving.
This is why the first half of 2016 is very important for the Republican Party, depending on if the party leadership responds to the challenges correctly, and if they will pay more attention on hearing voices from Middle Americans. Yet, some Republicans are too confident to accept the trend that Trump and other outsiders (Carson and Fiorina) might ultimately win the nomination. In a National Review article, Kristen Anderson questioned all the polls and argued that Trump’s supporters will never go to the ballot when Election Day comes. Therefore, Trump’s popularity is overstated. This tone shows that part of the Republican establishment has not gotten out of its comfort zone and faced the real issues.
It might be true that Trump’s supporters rarely voted before, but that does not mean they will not come out in this year’s election after being stirred. The Republican establishment should never underestimate outsiders’ capabilities, especially Trump’s, to energize and enthuse voters. Assuming Trump’s supporters will not go to the ballot on Election Day only creates comfortable delusion within the parties’ leadership, which makes it less likely to turn GOP’s current crisis over.
Both establishments and the grassroots movement (Tea Party) think that the main problem facing the GOP is immigration. However, the defeat of Mitt Romney in 2012 has shown that “change nothing but immigration” will no longer work. With a changing demographic population, the Republicans cannot afford to bear the cost of losing supports from the minority. The majority of African-Americans are hardcore supporters of the Democratic Party, which is less likely to change in a short amount of time. Most Asian-Americans are non-Christians and feel susceptible to slogans and ads related to religion. As the fastest growing minority, Latinos are the best bid for Republicans to approach.
For immigrants as an audience, legal or illegal, they come to America because they want to seek a better life, or greater freedom, than what they had where they used to live. The GOP should show them their philosophy and agenda is the right thing to keep America the ideal place for immigrants. Show them that the Democrats’ ideal to make America a welfare state that, as with countries like Denmark, will never be able to welcome immigrants. This is why Bernie Sanders strongly opposes open borders.
Being able to move back to the central right will determine if the Republicans can win the national election this year. So far the GOP has done well in state legislature and governorships, but if they want to have a sweeping victory, a central-right agenda on the federal level is the right direction to go.
Republicans admire former President Ronald Reagan. But think about what Reagan said in his farewell address when he described the America he saw: “a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here.” That openness is the true conservatism that Republicans should stick with.
