In any sport, the importance of rebounding from a disappointing defeat cannot be overstated. Unfortunately for N.C. State fans, their Wolfpack didn’t get that memo on the plane ride down to Clemson.
State followed up Saturday’s heartbreaking loss at Syracuse in the worst way possible, getting manhandled at Littlejohn Coliseum by Clemson, 73-56, Tuesday night, putting its already faint NCAA Tournament hopes in even further jeopardy.
The Wolfpack shot decently from the field, going 45.7 percent in the game. But State only got to the line 14 times compared to 26 for Clemson and turned the ball over 14 times as well.
Other than do-everything sophomore forward T.J. Warren, junior guard Ralston Turner was the only State player to score in double figures. That isn’t going to cut it on a team that’s struggled to find a consistent third scoring option all season.
To be fair, State has faced two of the ACC’s best defenses in its past two games. But against both teams, the Pack struggled to get the ball inside, draw fouls and score. Against Syracuse’s vaunted 2-3 zone, State resorted to flinging up jumpers, which one-by-one clanged off the rim. On Tuesday, Clemson simply increased its defensive pressure in the second half, allowing State to score just 23 points.
In its first season since it graduated former guard Scott Wood, State’s all-time leader in three-point field goals (334), the Wolfpack’s shooting from beyond the arc has been mediocre. Only Turner has proven himself as a reliable threat from deep, while junior guard Desmond Lee, freshman guard Anthony “Cat” Barber and sophomore guard Tyler Lewis are all extremely streaky.
The Pack functions best when Warren and the frontcourt can get in the lane and create from there. But the problem is State simply can’t stretch defenses with outside shooting enough to efficiently attack them.
And the news only gets worse for the Wolfpack faithful. With a pair of losses this week, State is essentially backed into a scenario where every game is a must-win. Though it’s true that no team is theoretically out of contention until it loses in its conference tournament, there can’t be anyone that actually expects the Pack to make a miracle run after Tuesday’s performance.
State’s RPI currently stands at No. 55 in the country, a little too low to reasonably expect an at-large bid. The Wolfpack’s résumé is also devoid of wins against the nation’s top 50, making next Wednesday’s home tilt with archrival UNC-Chapel Hill a do-or-die faceoff, the same Tar Heels that posted a comeback win over No. 5 Duke Thursday night.
However, the Wolfpack can’t look ahead to that game. On Saturday, it travels to Virginia Tech (9-16 overall, 2-11 ACC), which currently sits at last place in the ACC, yet pushed the white-hot Virginia Cavaliers (22-5 overall, 13-1 ACC) to the brink on Sunday.
The Hokies’ RPI is No. 222 in the country, but no matter how weak the opponent looks on paper, it’s never easy to go on the road in the ACC and pick up a win. The Pack can attest – it fell at 11th-place Wake Forest Jan. 15 and squeaked past 13th-place Miami by one point Feb. 8.
State has a rematch with Miami on March 1 and a home game with another cellar-dweller, Boston College, on March 9 to close out the season. While conventional wisdom says the Pack should take care of business in those games and pad its conference record, the trade-off is that State’s RPI and strength of schedule will take a hit even if it wins.
Throw in an ungainly loss to No. 126 North Carolina Central back in November and even the most diehard of Pack fans couldn’t make a compelling case for their team to make the NCAA Tournament.
In between the Miami and BC games, the Wolfpack travels to Pittsburgh, a team that handed head coach Mark Gottfried’s bunch its first conference loss on Jan. 4.
Though the Panthers have struggled of late, their computer numbers are still favorable and beating them on the road would no doubt catch the eyes of the selection committee.
Meanwhile, the Wolfpack needs to root for teams it’s already beaten, including Maryland, Florida State and Tennessee, which make up the Pack’s three top-100 wins. If State wins out, its record would be 21-10 overall, 11-7 in the ACC, and a win or two in the ACC Tournament just might slide the Pack off the bubble and into the field of 68.
But considering the way N.C. State has played of late, that seems like an impossible scenario.
