According to a Gallup Poll released Jan.8, a record-setting 42 percent of Americans identify themselves as Independents. The poll results also show that Republican identification is at an all-time low. At 31 percent, Democrat identification is relatively unchanged, but still 5 percent lower than it was in 2008.
Americans’ dissatisfaction with today’s political parties may be partially attributed to the political partisanship that seemingly led to the government shutdown, which very seriously damaged the reputation of our elected leaders on both sides of the political spectrum.
However, the trends in party alliance throughout the course of time indicate that there are more divisive issues driving Americans away from the dominant political parties. Given that Republican identification peaked at the beginning of George W. Bush’s second term and was at an all-time low by the time he left office, it is likely that the actions of Bush concerning the Iraq War and the 2007 housing crash are the cause of the decrease in Republican identification.
Similarly, the decrease in Democratic identification can likely be attributed to the failures in the implementation of President Barack Obama’s healthcare system, as well as the difference from his campaign promises and his actions concerning foreign policy and civil liberties.
The Obama that ran on a platform of civil liberties and a transparent government during his presidential campaign is very obviously different from the Obama who oversaw the National Security Agency’s spying program and aggressively targeted whistle-blowers in court. The Obama Administration has charged six people in concurrence with the 1917 Espionage Act. This is more than all previous presidents in United States history since the act was passed.
Although, it is worth noting that nearly all presidents’ views toward civil liberties and foreign policy tend to become more authoritarian once they are in office, perhaps for good reason.
Despite this, Democrats maintain a considerable edge among Independents according to the poll results at 31 percent compared to 25 percent of Republicans. Sixteen percent of Independents tend to lean to the right or the left of the political spectrum.
Whether or not Americans will favor Independent candidates as opposed Democrat or Republican candidates is impossible to predict, but it would be an anomaly to say the least. In any case, it is clear that Americans are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the mainstream actors in American politics, and this has numerous implications for the country’s political future.
For one, the upcoming presidential midterm elections will be difficult to predict even for brilliant statisticians such as Nate Silver given that support for Congress is at an all-time low, and there is no telling which parties Americans are going to favor.
What is clear is that the trend of electing highly polarized candidates even in more polarized states may become not in the best strategic interests of either party. Also, because the public is becoming less supportive of extreme views on the whole, whether or not polarized candidates can produce advantageous political outcomes may be irrelevant if they public will not support them come election time.
Moreover, it is not unlikely that this high degree of dissatisfaction among our elected officials will lead to a serious change in the gridlock that has defined our political system throughout the past decade. If Americans really are as tired of politics as usual as the polls suggest, how much longer can our politicians afford to be unwilling to make compromises?
When the majority of Americans choose not to identify themselves with one of the leading political parties, it appears as though the practice of political brinksmanship on the public’s watch and paycheck may quickly become ill advised.
