With election season set to kickoff with primaries in just over a month, North Carolina is once again garnering national attention in the political arena. The state is growing both in size and political stature, trends that are sure to continue for decades to come.
The 2020 election saw the lowest margin of victory for a Republican presidential candidate in the state in over four decades, a time period in which only one Democrat has won in 11 elections. Presidential candidates are spending more time and money in what’s beginning to truly resemble a battleground state.
A state once firmly red has been wavering to swing status for the past few election cycles, resulting in a flurry of investment from both parties. Democrats hotly contested Sen. Thom Tillis’ reelection in 2020 in what amounted to the most expensive Senate race in history — an investment indicative of a shift in the partisan makeup of the state.
The changing dynamics of the state’s voting tendencies is emblematic of changing demographics. As North Carolina sees more people moving from rural areas to cities and suburbs, as well as an increase of Black and Latino voters, voting patterns are becoming more balanced. This sentiment also ties in with an increase of university student participation.
These changes are set to become more influential with the release of the 2020 census, which has apportioned 14 seats in the House of Representatives and 16 votes in the Electoral College, each one more than previously had. This development sees a tangible increase of power in national elections and in Congress for North Carolina, with more representation for the state’s growing population.
While recent years have highlighted the state’s changing influence on the national legislature and executive, 2022 is seeing the state play a vital role in judicial precedents. With the census every decade comes a redistricting of congressional and state legislative seats, and along with it the all too familiar practice of gerrymandering.
The Republican-controlled General Assembly passed new maps in November which would increase the party’s already firm hold on legislative power in the state. However, these maps were thrown out by the North Carolina Supreme Court. The state’s highest judicial authority — made up of a 4-3 Democratic majority — ordered them to be redrawn before deciding to enact their own maps made by an independent group of North Carolinian special masters.
The decision was appealed up to the U.S. Supreme Court which allowed for the maps drawn by the courts but indicated the issue needed to be revisited. Whether state legislatures are given full autonomy to draw districts — the principle from which gerrymandering stems — would have national implications. This matter of constitutional law is being spearheaded by leading North Carolina politicians just a few blocks from campus and could change the landscape of elections for the entire country.
The upcoming election will have drastic implications both for and from the court-mandated maps. The state Supreme Court elections will see two justices elected to an eight-year term; Democrats need to win both to maintain their majority and safeguard against gerrymandered districts. As for the maps themselves, what has been in years past a firm 10-3 advantage for NC Republicans in Congress is set to become a more balanced 7-6-1. This includes an additional contentious district that is being headlined by former NC State football player Bo Hines.
With both the former and current president visiting North Carolina this week, a tight race for control in the House and a heated Senate primary, the state is well established in the spotlight.
North Carolina is a microcosm of the nation’s wider political picture, encapsulating the intricacies of American politics in its diversity and close partisan contention. Expect more attention for the state in 2022 and beyond as politicians vie for control of an emerging political powerhouse.
As North Carolina’s influence on the electorate and national political stage continues to grow, it’s important to be involved and in the know. The Raleigh-based News & Observer is a great resource for local and state-level politics. The deadline for registering to vote for the primary on May 17 is Friday, April 22 and can be done online through the NC Division of Motor Vehicles (NCDMV) services.
