The No. 4 NC State women’s basketball team has a chance for a character-defining win in its matchup with the No. 3 Louisville Cardinals. While the Wolfpack has been on a roll as of late, easily dispatching then-No. 19 North Carolina and then-No. 16 Duke within the last two weeks, there still hasn’t been a season-defining moment for this squad.
In the first game of the season, the Wolfpack lost to No. 1 South Carolina, who is still the nation’s top dog. The other team receiving No. 1 votes in the latest AP Poll? The Cardinals, who are flying high with just one loss — its season-opener against No. 10 Arizona present the Pack’s biggest challenge since that fateful opener.
Sure, the Wolfpack blew out then-No. 3 Maryland early in the season, but the Terrapins now sit with five losses. No. 6 Indiana is the Pack’s other big win, but beating the Cardinals would be significant. In last year’s record-breaking season, the Wolfpack took down Louisville twice — once when the Cardinals were the No. 1 team in the nation, a game that took place on the road, and again in the ACC Championship, giving the Pack its second straight title.
But Louisville has long been a thorn in the side of the Pack, beating NC State once in the 28-4 championship season and then blowing it out in the 2018-19 season before eliminating the Wolfpack from the ACC Tournament that same season.
Unlike those seasons, this year’s Louisville offensive attack is headed by several players as opposed to one or two high-flying scorers, like Dana Evans.
Kianna Smith is Louisville’s leading scorer, averaging 12.2 points per game and shooting a ridiculous 45.8% from 3 on 72 total attempts. Smith is responsible for much of the Cardinals’ offensive creation, leading the team in assists and playing with extreme control. As one of the primary ball handlers for Louisville, her 1.95 assist-to-turnover ratio is extremely impressive, the second-best on the team.
Syracuse transfer Emily Engstler is exactly as advertised: a defensive menace. Engstler’s team-leading 45 steals are not only 16 more than the next-highest player, but it comes out to a whopping 2.8 per-game average. Engstler also leads the team in rebounds and blocks and registers a ridiculous 4.4 stocks per game. The Pack is going to have its hands full with Engstler, with no clear mismatch to take advantage of and with Louisville’s Olivia Cochran set to occupy senior center Elissa Cunane.
There is one area where the Wolfpack is significantly better than Louisville: 3-point shooting. The Cardinals shoot 36.9% on 3s with 94 total makes, an excellent mark, but one that pales in comparison to NC State’s 40.9% clip on 153 makes.
However, taking advantage of that disparity is easier than it seems. In its six games against ranked opponents, NC State has shot 34.7% from deep, which isn’t horrible but is a far cry from the rest of the games on its schedule. In those games, the Pack’s two best 3-point shooters, guards graduate Raina Perez and sophomore Diamond Johnson combined to shoot 40.4%, meaning that the Wolfpack is going to need more contributions from the rest of the squad, like graduate guard Kai Crutchfield, who has yet to hit a 3 in a loss, if it wants to truly take over that aspect of the game.
Something else to consider is the fact Louisville has played and, for the most part, dominated a much more difficult schedule than the Pack. After Louisville plays NC State, the Cardinals will have taken on six players that have a strong chance to be selected in the first round of the 2022 WNBA Draft: No. 8 Michigan’s Naz Hillmon, No. 23 Kentucky’s Rhyne Howard, Cunane, No. 9 UConn’s Evina Westbrook and Christyn Williams, and No. 8 Georgia Tech’s Lorela Cubaj. By contrast, NC State will have taken on one: No. 1 South Carolina’s Destanni Henderson.
It’s important to look at how Louisville handled that sheer star power considering the Pack has its own star in Cunane. Hillmon and Howard are consensus future top-four picks, with Howard the consensus No. 1 overall prospect, a title she’s held for some time. Louisville beat Hillmon’s Michigan by 22 points and held Hillmon to 12 points and five turnovers. Howard had nine points and shot a mere 3 of 13 from the field.
This isn’t a one-off situation. In its win over Connecticut, Louisville held Williams and Westbrook to a combined 16 points and seven turnovers and 30.4% from the floor. Cubaj matched up with Engstler and had 12 points but five turnovers.
NC State has to prepare for the fact that Louisville head coach Jeff Walz has game-planned for Cunane and is eager to get a turnover fest started early. If Engstler gets the matchup on Cunane defensively, it could spell trouble for the Wolfpack’s inside game. Head coach Wes Moore will need to get his other players in his deep rotation involved or it could be a rough day for the Pack.
NC State’s highly anticipated matchup with Louisville takes place Thursday, Jan. 20 inside Reynolds Coliseum. The game tips at 7:30 p.m. and will be broadcast on ESPN. Be sure to follow along with @TechSports on Twitter to follow along with the game live.
