The 97th Academy Awards, commonly called “the Oscars,” is right around the corner on March 2. This major award show recognizes the year’s most influential films throughout several categories, including Best Picture, Best Actor in a Leading Role and Best Actress in a Leading Role.

As with most mainstream media, the Academy Awards are typically 5% about the actual content and impression of the films and 95% about Hollywood politics and other miscellaneous controversies.

Subsequently, this year’s nominations have hurled all of us film nerds into a cascade of excitement, defeat, cynicism and, per usual, an overwhelming sense of blanket confusion. 

The only prediction I can be certain of is that the list of winners will have us following that same trend.

Starting with Best Actor in a Leading Role, every nominee brought an unforgettable performance to their film. Those that stand out most are Ralph Fiennes in “Conclave,” a twist-filled thriller about selecting the next Pope and Timothée Chalamet in “A Complete Unknown,” a musical biopic about Bob Dylan. 

Ultimately, I predict victory for Timothée Chalamet.

I wouldn’t call “A Complete Unknown” the film of the year. Its depiction of Dylan’s life felt colorful and insightful at best and like a Wikipedia search at worst.

However, Chalamet’s performance and dedication to his role is a shot of espresso within the film. His transformation into Dylan is undeniably impressive.

Chalamet’s five year commitment to this part shines through his musical performances. His Oscar campaign reminds us how accurately he morphs into Dylan’s speaking, singing and all his quirks.

For Best Actor in a Supporting Role, I’m siding with the critics and choosing Kieran Culkin in “A Real Pain.” The film tells the story of two comically opposite cousins who travel to Poland to learn more about their recently deceased grandmother and how to navigate their grief. 

Culkin won Best Supporting Actor this year at the Critics Choice Awards and Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the Golden Globe Awards. He finds a way to make a complex character blend so smoothly. A role such as this demands intense range. Culkin met the challenge head-on and performed beautifully.

Best Actress in a Leading Role should go to Fernanda Torres hands down. She stars in “I’m Still Here,” a gripping adaptation of a true story about a woman’s search for her husband and her fight for human rights after a military dictatorship upends Brazil in 1971.

The film peels back the layers of motherhood and our dedication to those we love, especially in the face of injustice. Torres delivers a spectacular depiction of her character, Eunice Paiva, leaving me deeply moved by her story.

If you’re wondering about the absence of “Emilia Peréz,” — the most Oscar-nominated film of the year — in my predictions thus far, then it’s time to begin the controversial conversation.

“Emilia Peréz” is about a cartel kingpin who enlists an attorney to help her fake her death to pursue a different path as a trans woman. 

Criticism of the film includes that it reinforces harmful stereotypes about trans people and employs a cisgender French director, Jacques Audidard, to oversee a film about Mexico and the trans experience.

The leading actress, Karla Sofía Gascón, has also wildly diminished her chances of winning Best Actress in a Leading Role after her harmful, racist tweets recently resurfaced.

So no, I don’t think the coveted Best Picture award should go to Emilia Peréz, and I think there’s a good chance the controversy will keep it from winning. 

Instead, I predict a big win for “Anora,” which took home the prestigious Palme d’Or from the Cannes Film Festival and won Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards. 

“Anora,” directed by Sean Baker, follows the story of Anora “Ani” Mikheeva, played by Mikey Madison, a sex worker who becomes involved in a whirlwind romance with the son of a Russian oligarch. After an impulsive marriage, his powerful family comes after Ani sending henchman Igor, played by Yura Borisov, to force an annulment.

This film is bold, reckless and one-of-a-kind. We take a full tour of Mikheeva’s mind, from her cynical, survivalist outer shell to the deeper traumas and defense mechanisms underneath her thick skin.

Anora is raw, devastating, hilarious and overwhelmingly entertaining. 

For my final predictions, I’ll cover the shoo-ins and the snubbed.

“Challengers,” is a sports film about a dramatic love triangle between three tennis prodigies. Unfortunately, it wasn’t nominated for any Academy Awards. 

At a minimum, it deserved a nomination for Best Music (Original Score) and maybe even Best Costume Design for inspiring all of us to buy a tennis dress last summer.

“The Substance” is a shoo-in for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. It’s a feminist horror film following the mutilation and degradation of a woman’s body as she uses a mysterious substance to revitalize her youth and career. The extensive body horror was done authentically with all-too-convincing prosthetics in a way that’s horrifying, grotesque and fantastically done.

Since new controversies and campaigns are constantly dredged up from the bottom of the Academy Award cesspool, predicting winners is pretty impossible. 

Truly, I have no idea who will be victorious, but it’s fun to guess.