Every game at NC State produces new narratives that mold the foundation of programs, for better or worse. Is it too early to reach a verdict, or is it time to panic? Let’s judge some of the biggest overreactions for the Wolfpack with the fall semester in the rear-view.
“NC State football was the most disappointing fall sport.”
If it had been said in August that graduate quarterback Grayson McCall would lead NC State to an ACC Championship, throwing to All-American sophomore receiver Kevin Concepcion, no one would have batted an eye after a 9-4 2023 season and a presumably improved roster. Instead, freshman quarterback CJ Bailey started most of the year after McCall medically retired and Concepcion’s numbers dipped drastically, leading to a 6-7 record — the first losing season since 2019.
Head coach Dave Doeren’s group capped an underwhelming year with a stunning bowl loss as a two-score favorite against an East Carolina team that fired its coach mid-season. The disheartening ending led to a flurry of personnel changes, including new offensive and defensive coordinator hires, a new tight end coach, a new safety/nickel coach and a new defensive line assistant.
Outside of Carter-Finley Stadium, other fall sports found varying success the football team couldn’t. Men’s soccer made it to the Sweet 16 for the first time in over 30 years before falling to eventual national runner-up Marshall. Volleyball qualified for the NCAA tournament for the fourth time in school history. Women’s cross-country finished first in the Southeast Regional Championship and eighth in the National Coaches’ Poll ranking while the men finished seventh in the Southeast Regional Championship.
Considering the high expectations and the underwhelming results, NC State football is the most disappointing fall sport. While women’s cross-country and soccer couldn’t reach their full potential, their results don’t compare with the extreme gap that football left between what could’ve been and what was.
Conclusion: Not an overreaction
“Pack men’s basketball will miss the NCAA Tournament.”
It may be a new year, but NC State men’s basketball still has the same problem. Wake Forest dominated the Wolfpack in the paint last Saturday. Being dominated inside has plagued the Wolfpack as it has been heavily outrebounded in five of six losses and has been dominated in the paint, typified by Wake Forest’s 38-20 points in the paint advantage.
NC State senior forwards Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Ben Middlebrooks have been strikingly underwhelming, combining to average 4.7 rebounds in 21.45 average minutes per game. Their presence in conference play has been almost non-existent, producing 11.7 points and 6.8 boards, leading to a 1-2 conference record. This duo was expected to replicate the impact of last year’s frontcourt players, but have lacked the offensive skill set that the team’s March run was built around.
“What’s happening is we’re finding different ways to lose games,” said head coach Kevin Keatts. “This year’s team is not consistent right now. Not consistent with what we’re getting from each player, each game. One game one of our guys will have a good game, and then the other one, somebody else may have a good game.”
Although the Wolfpack was coming off a Final Four run, there weren’t the same expectations for this season, but an 8-6 start before the thick of ACC play is still underwhelming. The Pack was also unable to claim quality non-conference wins, which would’ve been critical given a weak schedule and the decline of a conference that recently stood atop college basketball. Instead, the Wolfpack is 0-3 against Quadrant 1 teams with three such matchups remaining and 0-3 against Quadrant 2 opponents with six more down the stretch. The only saving grace is an unblemished record against Quadrant 3 and 4 teams thus far.
The NCAA Selection Committee will undoubtedly pass on a team without a Q1 win, meaning the Wolfpack will either have to win against No. 4 Duke on the road, at UNC-Chapel Hill or at home against Pitt. A six-game stretch from Jan. 25 to Feb. 12 will see NC State face off against five Q2 teams and the Blue Devils, marking a make-or-break stretch for the Wolfpack.
With a current NET ranking of 114, NC State would likely have to rise to at least No. 50 as only three teams with a NET rank above 50 received an at-large bid last season, each having at least nine combined Q1 and Q2 wins. Barring another unprecedented ACC Tournament run — and the second coming of former men’s basketball star DJ Burns — Keatts’ Wolfpack has a bleak outlook this winter.
Conclusion: Not an overreaction
“NC State women’s basketball is turning a corner in the right direction.”
Last season, during NC State women’s basketball’s run to the Final Four, the team’s first loss didn’t come until Jan. 7 after a 14-0 start. In contrast, uncertainty on the interior led to a shaky 4-3 start for the preseason No. 9 team, dropping the Wolfpack out of the rankings and casting doubt on a repeat Final Four. In four meetings against ranked teams, NC State has been outrebounded 159-129, outscored in the paint 154-106 and has given up 45 second-chance points compared to just 30 of its own.
However, a seven-game win streak has lifted the Wolfpack back into the rankings, potentially signifying a change. Head coach Wes Moore seems to have found a four-guard formula along with freshman forward Tilda Trygger, who has played at least 20 minutes in three straight games. In those three games, NC State has outscored opponents 104-66 on the interior.
While this new combination has worked against consecutive unranked opponents, will it work when it matters? Guard-heavy lineups naturally concede an interior edge, leaving one-on-one matchups in the post. Is the true freshman ready for WNBA talent in the latter part of the schedule? The Wolfpack has five games remaining against currently ranked teams, including No. 3 Notre Dame who collect the fifth-most rebounds per game in the country, led by senior forward Liatu King who averages 11.7.
Winning seven straight is a massive confidence booster to begin ACC play, but the schedule gets more daunting the further into the season. This team is talented enough to make the tournament and even appear in the Sweet 16, but last year’s Final Four bar still seems unlikely. Until NC State women’s basketball proves itself against higher-ranked opponents, it’s too early to say if it’s turning a corner.
Conclusion: Overreaction
