The recent election has raised questions about the future of rights for transgender Americans, locally and federally. As president-elect Donald Trump prepares to enter the Oval Office, transgender Raleighites find themselves preparing for a potential barrage of anti-trans legislation.

Eli Van Nostrand, a third-year studying IT support and services at Wake Technical Community College, is a transgender man. He said he was “definitely concerned” about the state of trans rights in a second Trump presidency.

“It is a bit scary not being sure what’s going to happen next,” Van Nostrand said.

Project 2025, an initiative published by the Heritage Foundation, is a plan for a Republican presidency outlining multiple anti-trans legislative steps, including redefining “sex” under Title IX to refer to sex at birth and “[rescinding] regulations prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation, gender identity, transgender status and sex characteristics.”

Although Trump has not officially endorsed Project 2025, USA Today reported that he has selected several contributors from the initiative for his administration. According to AP News, Trump and his supporters have threatened to implement various anti-trans measures, such as banning gender-affirming care for minors and potentially reinstating bans on transgender individuals serving in the military.

Elizabeth Lane, an assistant professor of political science, said the Supreme Court and presidency can seem to be the most influential in federal legislation regarding these rights. However, she said it is important to note the Court of Appeals and the District Courts have a more direct impact due to their higher caseloads. 

“Trump will now be able to appoint even more Courts of Appeals judges,” Lane said. “He’s going to be shifting the lower courts more in the conservative direction, which is significant since that’s where the vast majority of federal laws are adjudicated.”

Lane said government overreach often prompts public response.

“The Supreme Court can rule something, but they need Congress to provide the financing for it and the bureaucracy to actually enact it and enforce it for them,” Lane said. “They can’t do any of that themselves.”

While national legislation affects all Americans, state laws have a more immediate impact on Raleigh residents. 

In 2023, North Carolina legislators passed three anti-trans bills, overriding Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes. These include HB 808, which prohibits minors from receiving gender-affirming care, HB 574, which mandates participation in sports teams based on sex assigned at birth and SB 49, which requires educators to report if a student comes out as transgender.

In 2024, nine anti-trans bills were proposed but failed to pass. On Nov. 5, North Carolinians elected Attorney General Josh Stein as governor, who has pledged to protect LGBTQ+ rights in North Carolina.

“Every North Carolinian deserves to live in a state where they have the freedom to vote, make their own healthcare decisions and live free from discrimination,” Stein wrote on his website.

Van Nostrand said he suggests other trans people on hormone replacement therapy talk to their providers about what will happen if legislation impacts medication, and suggests those who aren’t on hormone replacement therapy should look into it as soon as possible.

Kami Kosenko, an associate professor in the Department of Communication who researches transgender healthcare and sexual wellness, said a ban on transgender health would not stop people from seeking treatment. She expressed concern that inaccessible medicine might lead individuals to take unsafe measures.

Kosenko said there is a historical pattern of pushback against restrictive healthcare laws. 

“Anytime the government’s trying to assert itself into healthcare … providers start to speak up,” Kosenko said. 

Kosenko added that in trans Raleighites’ current social and political position, the threat is from federal-level intervention. Some states and medical agencies, like the American College of Physicians, can set expectations and protections to secure gender-affirming care. If the federal law were to change, those agencies would have no choice but to comply. 

“As a parent, you would have to be watching these election results very carefully,” Kosenko said. “If you have a child who is at all non-binary or trans, you have to be very fearful. In a lot of ways, our own country is becoming hostile to its own citizens. If we have federal bans, then no state would be safe.”

Steven Greene, a professor of political science, said there isn’t much reason to panic. 

Greene said the general public has a “live and let live” approach to trans rights. He cited a Pew Research article that says 89% percent of Americans are in favor of or indifferent to providing legal protections for trans people against discrimination. 

“When it comes to general rights for how transgender Americans live, Americans are pretty good with that,” Greene said. “That’s an important change from how things were not that long ago.”

However, consensus splits on issues of healthcare among minors and gendered sports. Within those realms of discussion, political affiliation does not always correlate with a strict stance.

According to Gallup, 69% of Americans believe athletes should only play on teams that match their assigned gender at birth, as of May 2023. Democrats were split 47-48 on the issue. 

Greene said he thinks that, for the transgender rights movement to make progress similar to the gay rights movement in the 1990s and 2000s, they should take an approach that appeals to the idea of personal freedom.

“I think we should try consolidating and expanding the idea of, ‘Hey, we just want the right to live our lives, we want these same rights,’” Greene said. “Focusing on the rights of adults to live their lives as they want is really effective.”

Van Nostrand said he believes things will eventually work out, as this is not a new fight. 

“As a marginalized group, we’ve definitely gone through restrictions to our rights before, and it will happen again,” Van Nostrand said. “But we made it through it before, so we’ll make it through again.”