After dropping below .500 for the first time this season — and since 2019 — NC State football appears to be at its lowest point in years. Struggling on both sides of the ball, the numbers paint a grim outlook for the rest of the Wolfpack’s season.
From a toothless defense to a miserable third down offense, here’s what the numbers say about NC State football.
117.4 rush yards per game
NC State has historically struggled to run the ball under head coach Dave Doeren. With the addition of transfer running backs graduate Jordan Waters and redshirt freshman Hollywood Smothers, there was an expectation for improvement. Instead, the red-and-white’s rushing production has dropped off by nearly 40 yards per game. Down to 14th in the ACC overall, the Pack’s inability to run the football is both baffling and inexcusable.
What makes this issue so problematic is that a poor run game makes a passing attack much easier to stop. With freshman quarterback CJ Bailey set to lead the Pack’s offense for the foreseeable future, defenses will certainly look to key in on the passing game. With an already one-dimensional offense, the Wolfpack is playing with fire and has been burned multiple times by its inability to run the ball.
32.3 points per game allowed
Good for second-worst in the ACC, the Wolfpack defense is giving away points like Oprah Winfrey handing out cars. Outside of its narrow win over Northern Illinois, the Pack has given up at least 20 points in every game and surrendered 50 twice. For a program that hangs its hat on defense, it has strayed away from its defensive identity this season.
No matter the opponent, NC State’s defense is consistently picked apart. Against Syracuse, the Orange torched the Pack through the air for 346 yards. The week prior, Wake Forest’s Demond Claiborne gashed the red-and-white for 136 yards on the ground. Simply put, the Wolfpack’s typically stout defense has completely collapsed following the losses of players like Payton Wilson, Jaylon Scott and Savion Jackson.
13 field goal attempts
One of the hallmarks of a team that is conservative to a fault is field goals. While field goals have their time and place, such as end-of-half situations and fourth-and-long, they rarely win football games. Yet, NC State often finds itself settling for field goals on its most successful drives, rather than punching into the endzone for six.
This problem is compounded by the fact that NC State is not a particularly good kicking team. Redshirt sophomore kicker Kanoah Vinesett is converting 76.9% of his attempts and has missed a kick in each ACC game. After enjoying the luxury of accurate kicking for years thanks to former kickers Christopher Dunn and Brayden Narveson, the Pack has fallen back to earth in the kicking department, yet insists on leaning on it. Vinesett is doing his best, but it’s time for the Wolfpack to play for touchdowns, not field goals.
36.3% third down conversion rate
When it’s third down for NC State, you can go ahead and get the punter ready. Currently 14th in the ACC at converting third downs, the Wolfpack struggles to sustain drives. With its running game giving little production, the red-and-white is often working from behind the eight-ball, trying to bail itself out on third down. Unfortunately for the Wolfpack, third downs have not been kind to the team this year, picking up the first on just 29 of 80 third downs.
Paired with this third-down conversion rate is another problem — a lack of fourth-down aggressiveness. NC State is one of the most conservative teams in the ACC on fourth downs, attempting just nine conversions all season. Opponents know that if they get the Pack to third down, it likely won’t convert and it rarely pushes its luck on fourth.
