NC State football has played an underwhelming five games of football thus far. But that’s not me talking, it’s the numbers.
Featuring a woeful third down conversion percentage, slow pace of play, a lackluster rushing game and more, let’s break down the Wolfpack’s start to its 2024 campaign by the numbers.
104th in the nation in third down conversion percentage
Out of 134 FBS teams, NC State currently ranks 104th in the nation in terms of third down conversion percentage. Yes, you read that right. The Wolfpack has converted just a few more than one-third of its third downs this season at a .339 clip.
For a fanbase that’s still claiming the Wolfpack can stumble its way into the College Football Playoff, this isn’t a very promising statistic. NC State has only converted 20 third downs so far this season, which averages to just four conversions per game.
Whether it’s the Pack’s slow pace of play or lack of offensive rhythm that comes with starting more than one quarterback, the red-and-white isn’t the least bit threatening when it comes to third down.
60.3 offensive plays per game
That’s more than 20 plays below the nation’s best. It’s also ranked as the 123rd best in the country. Like the Pack’s third down conversion percentage, NC State’s pace of play isn’t a pretty sight.
It’s one thing if you’re consistently scoring points and making first downs. However, the Pack is running one play every 31.3 seconds, good for 131st in the nation while only scoring 2.3 offensive touchdowns per game.
If NC State wants more chances at the end zone, offensive coordinator Robert Anae and head coach Dave Doeren might need to consider speeding things up.
3.4 yards per rush attempt
Once again, that offensive statistic has NC State sitting outside of the top 100 teams in college football. The Pack’s 3.4 yards per rush attempt and 108.5 rushing yards per game both put NC State at 104th in the country in each respective category.
It’s no secret the Wolfpack’s run game hasn’t been working the way it was supposed to — surprising given the high expectations for Duke transfer graduate running back Jordan Waters.
Despite bolstering its rushing attack in the transfer portal, NC State has regressed in both categories so far this season when compared to last year. In 2023, the Pack tallied over 40 more rushing yards per game than in 2024 at 150 rush yards per contest, good for 70th in the nation. The red-and-white was also ranked 68th in the country with 4.2 yards per attempt last season.
Waters is averaging 4.1 yards per carry per game on the season, but that number is down to 3.03 in the last four games, where he’s amassed just 92 yards. Meanwhile, sophomore running back Kendrick Raphael — a speedier and shiftier back — has averaged 6.15 yards per carry on nearly 19 less attempts than Waters.
Previously used as a change-of-pace back, a split backfield between Waters and Raphael is a likely scenario for Anae’s offense going forward.
4.9 rushing yards per opposing rushing attempt
While NC State’s rushing yards per attempt is on the lower end, its opponents’ rushing yards per attempt is on the high end. The Wolfpack’s defense is allowing nearly five yards per rush so far this season, good for 94th best in the country.
NC State is allowing 170.3 yards per game, another stat that ranks them in the lower half of the FBS in terms of rushing defense.
A big part of this is the amount of big plays given up by the NC State defense, a unit that has underwhelmed so far this season. Despite a return to form against Northern Illinois, the Wolfpack’s showings in blowout losses to Tennessee and Clemson and way-too-close calls to Louisiana Tech and Western Carolina, have shown this is not the formidable, sometimes deadly NC State defense of old.
