Every game at NC State produces new narratives that mold the foundation of programs, for better or worse. Is it too early to reach a verdict, or is it time to panic? Let’s judge and revisit some of the biggest overreactions for the Wolfpack down the fall home stretch.
“Wolfpack volleyball will make the NCAA Tournament, ending a seven-year drought.”
NC State volleyball has yet to make the NCAA Tournament under head coach Luka Slabe, but the former USA Volleyball assistant has launched the program to new heights in his four years.
After finishing a program-best 22-7 2023 regular season, NC State was an astonishing snub from last year’s NCAA Tournament. The slight may have been due to a schedule that only included three ranked opponents, limiting the team’s ability to get signature wins outside of then-No. 5 Louisville, who lost in the quarterfinals of the NCAA tournament. While it hasn’t produced a top-tier record, this year’s schedule has seen quality opponents in an ACC that added national powerhouses No. 5 Stanford and No. 12 SMU.
NC State comes into this week ranked No. 33 in RPI, the second highest in school history. Led by senior opposite hitter Amanda Rice and junior outside hitter Ava Brizard, who currently combine for 7.18 points per set, the Wolfpack had won three straight matches before falling to No. 4 Louisville on the road. The team has dropped just one game in Reynolds Coliseum with six remaining on the schedule, including dates with No. 3 Pitt and No. 12 SMU.
The No. 33 ranking projects a nine-seed if the tournament started today. A tough November slate that includes the two aforementioned games, a road trip to No. 12 SMU and No. 19 Florida State, could be the deciding factor.
Forecasting a tournament birth could also come down to the committee, whose decision patterns carry over from year to year. The closest comparison in last fall’s tournament to this year’s Wolfpack is Miami: an 18-12 ACC squad that finished 10-8 in the conference and made the tournament as a nine-seed, winning its first-round match. The Hurricanes likewise dominated at home with a 12-3 record. If NC State sustains its 62.5 win percentage, it’d finish 17-11, going 12-8 in ACC play.
Room for error with 12 games remaining, coupled with an elite defensive group that is second in the ACC in digs and top-five in service aces, sets Slabe’s team for its first tournament appearance since 2017.
Conclusion: Not an overreaction.
“Dave Doeren will go all-in on CJ Bailey for NC State’s first ACC Championship since 1979.”
A football season with weighty expectations has fallen short, but a glimmer of hope has emerged from an otherwise underwhelming year. An ugly injury for recently retired graduate quarterback Grayson McCall forced true freshman CJ Bailey into action that, after initial growing pains, has built optimism from fans witnessing his elite traits and ability. Finding success so soon in a signal caller is rarefied air, as Bailey is on pace to become the first NC State freshman to throw for 2,000 yards in a season since Philip Rivers in 2000.
Bailey’s breakout performance on Saturday saw him erase a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit with back-to-back touchdown drives in which he went 9/13 for 125 yards and two touchdowns. The poise shown by the 18-year-old in a hostile environment 2,800 miles away from Raleigh drew raves not only from his coaches but his teammates.
“CJ is getting better and better every game,” said redshirt freshman running back Hollywood Smothers, who caught the go-ahead touchdown. “Everybody believes in CJ. It comes naturally to him. We gotta keep believing in him. He’s gonna get the job done. CJ has everything he needs to be great.”
With four losses in the books, this year’s window for a championship has passed, but four games left and a potential bowl appearance can help gauge the program’s future.
Going all-in as soon as possible is imperative because, with expanded scholarship access and a transfer portal used more every year, great schools investing more money in athletics will only attract players it previously wouldn’t have the space for. As a result, smaller schools will continue to diminish from the national spotlight with no increase in supply.
Head coach Dave Doeren was busy in the transfer portal this offseason, bringing in McCall, leading receiver junior tight end Justin Joly, an offensive stalwart in graduate center Zeke Correll, who was voted a captain, among others. After bringing in the 18th-ranked transfer class, Doeren will presumably remain busy this spring, this time having a cornerstone at quarterback that will undoubtedly look intriguing for top-tier transfers.
Regardless of who is brought in, the door opens from both sides. There’s no guarantee that fundamental players will stay if SEC or Big 10 money is on the table, including Bailey. It’s an unprecedented time that has produced countless storylines across the country.
Now, envision a world where everything goes right on paper. Game-changing transfers, loyalty from building blocks, and development from Bailey inevitably will create more headlines and expectations. What evidence is there that anything will change? Chasing a conference throne and a College Football Playoff appearance seems far off, even with Bailey in line to start for the remainder of the season in light of McCall’s retirement. Doeren has brought NC State to nine bowl games in his 11 years at the helm but has never cracked the barrier between good and great despite becoming the winningest coach in NC State history last season.
Projecting years ahead forces numerous assumptions to be made, but without any reason to believe and an almost 12-year sample size that argues the contrary, there’s nothing but hope that can persuade otherwise.
Conclusion: Overreaction.
“An ACC Championship and beyond is in the cards for men’s soccer.”
A month ago, when the first “Overreactions” was published, the Wolfpack men’s soccer team was 5-1-2 coming off its first loss against No. 6 UNC but felt good about its No. 18 ranking and looking ahead to the rest of the ACC. Since then, it has won one of its last five matches with inconsistent offense and has dropped to No. 19.
After scoring 20 goals in its first seven games, the team mustered just two in its next five outings before a relieving five-goal excursion at No. 10 SMU. However, a story the results don’t tell is the stats behind them.
After beginning the season at a pace of 15.25 shots/game, the Wolfpack has kept pace with 13.6 shots/game during the rough patch, outshooting opponents 68-to-53. The murderer’s row of a schedule also has to be admired, as the team had to face now-No. 10 Duke, No. 7 Stanford in California, Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, No. 18 Hofstra and No. 21 SMU following the bout in Chapel Hill. Six consecutive games against either then-ranked or now-ranked opponents provide a relatively understandable predicament for the Pack, whose schedule includes no more ranked oppositions.
NC State has found ways to keep up with elite teams, leading to three ties where if one ball goes differently, the conversation is changed. This is still a solid team that, with a little luck going its way, has the goods to win an ACC Championship.
Conclusion: Still, not an overreaction.
