It’s human nature to observe a storyline and jump to conclusions and that’s no different in sports. Every game and event at NC State produces new narratives that mold the foundation of programs, for better or for worse. Is it too early to reach a verdict, or is it time to panic?
From Dave Doeren’s predicament at the quarterback spot to a chance for an ACC Championship for NC State men’s soccer, here are some of the biggest overreactions for some of the Wolfpack’s teams this week.
“CJ Bailey should be the starting quarterback regardless of Grayson McCall’s injury.”
It may be tough to side with true freshman quarterback CJ Bailey after Saturday’s game at Clemson. Bailey finished with a 51.3 quarterback rating paired with two turnovers, both of which led to Tiger touchdowns.
Then again, it’s also tough to argue for graduate quarterback Grayson McCall through his growing pains of Power 4 football. Neither Bailey nor McCall has truly looked like the quarterback to lead a winning football team, but how much of that falls on them?
There isn’t a running game to lean on, and no receiver outside of sophomore Kevin Concepcion has stood out. Plus, the defense gave up 59 points on Saturday, two weeks after surrendering 51. Both have had to deal with those circumstances with a microscope bearing down on them, so how much blame should be placed on the issue?
McCall was the 15th-ranked ESPN transfer in the 2024 class, with hopes of pairing his electric arm with elite ACC playmakers. The fifth-year senior led the Wolfpack to a late win over Western Carolina but was romped by Tennessee before suffering an undisclosed injury in the first half against Louisiana Tech.
Despite sub-par play from McCall, the trial-by-fire approach burned the Wolfpack in Death Valley, making this decision for the coaching staff all the more difficult.
There’s a term in psychology called “sunk-cost fallacy,” which means when someone invests in something, they want to get their money’s worth. When you rent a bad movie and eat stale popcorn, it feels like a waste to turn off the movie that’s already paid for and throw away the popcorn that’s already popped. All it leads to is a sad way to spend a weeknight.
Regardless of the team’s investment in the Coastal Carolina transfer, this shouldn’t be overthought. The Wolfpack offense scored 47 points in nine and a half quarters with McCall under center. The Bailey-led attack has scored 45 in less than six quarters.
For those with optimism that Doeren can channel his inner Kevin Keatts and save the Pack’s season, don’t hold out too much hope. What looked like a get-right game against Northern Illinois before the season is no longer a piece of cake, which is the ideal spot to test Bailey.
This may reflect that very optimism, but frankly, the freshman didn’t look all that bad for his first start in what may be the most difficult place to play in the country. Most of the game came down to swing plays and breakdowns that killed momentum, like a rare Concepcion fumble and a pick-6 in the third quarter, but Bailey looked comfortable in the chaos, something no McCall supporter can claim.
Conclusion: Not an overreaction
“Goal production will make or break the NC State women’s soccer season.”
In the Wolfpack’s three wins this year, it has scored a combined 12 goals, including four from senior midfielder Annika Wohner. In its seven other games, the team has scored two. Offensive production is at a standstill as the women sit second to last in shots per game in the ACC.
Starting forwards have combined for one goal this year — though sophomore forward Jade Bordeleau scored a hat trick against George Washington. On top of that, Wohner has only taken three shots on goal since her back-to-back braces in August. Finding consistent scoring has been challenging as the team seeks an identity at the halfway point of the regular season.
As the rankings stand, seven of the top 25 teams reside in the ACC, including No. 1 Stanford, who NC State lost to in a 2-0 result on Sunday. Is contending with the elite offenses of the conference the only way to stay in the NCAA tournament race?
Despite what the results may suggest, the Wolfpack has been in control of most games. Against California, it led 1-0 at the 62-minute mark before giving up three goals in 11 minutes. Against William & Mary, the Pack outshot the Tribe 13-6 in a 1-0 loss. NC State also outshot Campbell 23-6 in a 2-1 defeat earlier in the season.
A combination of over aggressiveness and a save percentage of just 75.5% has led to higher quality opportunities for oppositions in key moments.
In addition, those 12 goals were against VCU (2-6-1), Charlotte (1-6-3) and George Washington (3-5-2), none of whom have beaten a Power 4 school. Blowouts against inferior opponents inflate the disparity in scoring while the ACC is a different animal. Scoring goals is crucial to the success the women seek in conference play, but won’t necessarily be the pivot point.
Conclusion: Overreaction
“An ACC Championship and beyond is in the cards for men’s soccer.”
After going unbeaten through its first seven games, the Wolfpack suffered its first defeat at the hands of unbeaten No. 6 UNC-Chapel Hill in its second ACC match of the year. Despite the loss, NC State remains one of the hottest teams in the country.
Just one year removed from a six-win season, the Wolfpack has already matched its conference win total and is one victory off its overall win total from last year. As the men continue to climb the standings and prove this is more than an average year, it begs the question of national contention.
In eight games, the Pack has outscored its opponents 20 to seven and outshot them 122 to 83 on the way to a No. 18 national ranking.
Contrary to the women, the men have stood out against both lesser and quality teams, both in the eye test and box score. NC State sits firmly in the top five scoring offenses per game nationally, as well as in the top 20 in goal differential.
Being tested by Carolina may prove beneficial for a conference championship race down the stretch of the season with elite teams lining the newly expanded conference. Four of the country’s top 10 teams call the ACC home, including three of the top four.
The true test will come in the next three games when NC State hosts Duke, travels to No. 2 Stanford and heads to No. 17 Virginia Tech in consecutive games.
Conclusion: Not an overreaction
