After a rocky Week 1 victory against Western Carolina, No. 24 NC State travels to Charlotte to take on No. 14 Tennessee in the Duke’s Mayo Classic. As NC State takes on its toughest opponent of the season, here are some favorable bets for the matchup.
NC State (+8) vs. Tennessee
Before the start of the season, NC State was originally 4.5 point underdogs to Tennessee, but after a shaky start against Western Carolina and a strong showing from the Volunteers, the spread increased to eight points.
Many fans are concerned about the state of the Pack, and rightfully so. The Wolfpack entered its matchup against Western Carolina as 32.5 point favorites, but found itself losing after three quarters in what was supposed to be an ‘easy’ win for NC State. The defense couldn’t string together consistent stops and the offense seemed to be making rookie mistakes.
However, the Pack returned to expected form in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Catamounts 21-0 to claim the win. It’s likely NC State was simply working off the rust for the first three quarters. Graduate quarterback Grayson McCall hadn’t played a game since Oct. 21, and the offense started transfers from five different schools that hadn’t played a snap together.
Tennessee is coming off a massive 69-3 victory in Week 1, but the victory should be taken with a grain of salt as it beat Chattanooga, a team that hasn’t beaten a Power Four school this century. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has looked impressive in his first two starts for the Volunteers, but hasn’t played a Top 25 team in the regular season.
If the Wolfpack plays the way it did in the fourth quarter against Western Carolina, it could give Tennessee a run for its money. However, even if Tennessee wins the matchup, it’s hard to imagine it would be by more than a touchdown. Look for NC State to cover the spread.
Pick: NC State +8 (-112)
Over/Under 60.5 points
Though Tennessee scored 69 points in its season opener, it faces an NC State defense that allowed just 20.8 points per game last season, good for third in the ACC. At the same time, although NC State has a high-powered offense, it faces a Tennessee defense that allowed just 20.3 points per game last season, good for third in the SEC. As much as everyone loves a shootout, these defenses have played too well over the last year to each allow 30 points in this matchup. Look for the under on the total score.
Pick: Under 60.5 points (-108)
Touchdown props
Though he threw an interception in the first quarter, McCall finished the game with 318 yards and three touchdown passes. Between sophomore wide receiver KC Concepcion, junior tight end Justin Joly and redshirt freshman wide receiver Noah Rogers, McCall has a plethora of elite targets to throw to. Through his 91 games started, McCall averages over two touchdown passes per game. In a matchup where the Wolfpack is projected to play from behind, expect to see lots of passing from the red-and-white.
Pick: Grayson McCall over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-145)
Though the rushing attack struggled for the first three quarters, graduate running back Jordan Waters finally found the endzone in the final 15 minutes on a 7-yard plunge. Five minutes later, he broke away for a 50-yard rushing touchdown to seal the victory for the Wolfpack. Waters finished with 20 total carries, 17 more than any other running back. NC State loves to run the ball in the redzone, so look to see Waters record his third touchdown of the season.
Pick: Jordan Waters anytime touchdown (-140)
Yardage prop
Besides Concepcion, junior tight end Justin Joly appears to be McCall’s favorite target, reeling in five catches for 75 yards against Western Carolina. The UConn transfer has emerged as the clear starting tight end for the Wolfpack, playing in 63% of snaps for the red-and-white offense. Joly averaged nearly 53 yards per game with the Huskies last season, and with a veteran quarterback like McCall under center, he could be in line for a more productive season. After last week’s 121-yard outing, most of Tennessee’s focus in pass coverage will be on Concepcion, allowing Joly to be a primary playmaker in this ranked matchup.
Pick: Justin Joly over 50 receiving yards (+170)
