To say NC State football has had a disappointing start to its 2024 campaign would be an understatement. What was hyped up to be the Wolfpack’s first 10-win season since 2002 has turned into a 2-2 record through its first four matchups of the season. Victim to two blowouts and two way-too-close calls against a Group of Five team and an FCS team, NC State has looked like a shell of the team it was projected to be.
Too many players have missed time in just the first four games. Graduate quarterback Grayson McCall is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. Graduate cornerback Aydan White has already missed time with an undisclosed injury. Now, redshirt junior defensive end Red Hibbler has been removed from the roster, a key loss given that Hibbler was tied for the most sacks on the team last season.
However, I find it hard to believe that the Wolfpack’s season is over that easily. At this point, it’s nearly impossible for the Wolfpack to receive an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff, meaning its only avenue is an ACC Championship victory. An ACC Championship appearance is easier said than done, especially in NC State’s position, but not completely out of the question.
The biggest threats to an NC State ACC Championship appearance are Miami, Clemson and Louisville, all of which are currently undefeated four weeks into the season.
Miami is projected to win the ACC and for good reason, averaging over 50 points per game while benefiting from an easy schedule. The only ranked opponent Miami is slated to face is Louisville, which could help the Pack in the long run. For all intents and purposes, we can most likely assume Miami will be playing in Charlotte come conference championship season.
Clemson is slated to finish second in the conference, and needs no explanation as to why. NC State has seen firsthand how electric Clemson’s high-scoring offense is. Assuming Miami takes one ACC Championship slot, Clemson will most likely take the other, benefiting from an easy schedule as it has just one ranked matchup, facing the Cardinals in November.
However, it faces a feisty South Carolina team in its final matchup of the regular season, a potential upset alert for the Tigers. Additionally, this is not the same Clemson that most grew up watching, recording some questionable losses in recent seasons, including defeats to Duke and a weak Miami squad in 2023. The Wolfpack needs a loss against Louisville and at least one more unexpected loss against an underdog to prevent Clemson from stealing the second championship slot.
Finally, there’s Louisville, who has the toughest schedule amongst the three top contenders. In addition to ranked matchups against both Clemson and Miami, it faces No. 16 Notre Dame and Kentucky, a team that nearly defeated then-No. 1 ranked Georgia, in two difficult away matchups. Assuming Louisville can manage a victory against Clemson, losses to Notre Dame and Kentucky would massively increase the Wolfpack’s chances of making it to the big game.
Of course, all of these assumptions hinge on NC State winning every game from here on out. Luckily, losses against both Tennessee and Clemson were predicted, and losing to two top 25 teams is a much better look than losing to an unranked team, much less an FCS team. However, many fans have lost hope after nearly witnessing two NC State upset losses.
The Wolfpack is not slated to face any ranked teams for the remainder of the season, clearing a potential path to Charlotte. Its most difficult matchup appears to be Saturday’s home bout against Northern Illinois, the same team that took down then-No. 5 Notre Dame in its own stadium. However, with an overtime loss to Buffalo, Northern Illinois might not be as tough as originally expected.
Remember, this isn’t a new situation for NC State. This time last season, the Wolfpack sat at 3-2 after a blowout defeat to Notre Dame, an unexpected loss against Louisville and two way-too-close wins against teams that should’ve been blown out in UConn and Virginia.
NC State finished that season with a 9-4 record after blowing its opportunity at a 10-win season in the Pop Tart Bowl. Also remember that the Wolfpack has been through similar quarterback difficulties in each of its last two seasons, benching Brennan Armstrong for MJ Morris before switching back towards the end of the 2023 season and starting Jack Chambers after Devin Leary’s season-ending injury in 2022.
To be fair, the Wolfpack’s quarterback struggles have begun earlier than usual this season. However, freshman CJ Bailey looks to be more talented and ACC-ready than Morris or Chambers ever did. He’s an explosive playmaker who has performed above expectations given the circumstances. Bailey has made some rookie mistakes, such as poor decision-making and ball security, but that’s expected from a player who was thrust into the spotlight much earlier than expected.
NC State got exposed in every facet of its game against both Tennessee and Clemson, but don’t let it discourage you from the rest of the season. The Wolfpack has been known for closing the season strong, personified by men’s basketball’s postseason run after losing 10 of its last 14 games to close the regular season. Who says football can’t do the same?
