All NC State could do was sit back and watch as the conference duked it out to reach its final regular-season standings — which puts the Wolfpack as the sixth seed in the ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament.
On the lowest path of the bottom half of the bracket, NC State plays the latest game of the day from the second round onward. Tip-off times are guaranteed to be 9:30 p.m. for all of the Wolfpack’s matchups barring a trip to the championship game.
Starting that journey to championship Saturday, NC State faces the winner of No. 11 Virginia Tech vs. No. 14 Notre Dame. The Pack found itself on the right side of a close game against both of these teams in the regular season, taking down the Hokies 73-69 on their home court and downing Notre Dame 85-82 in a midweek matchup at PNC Arena.
The Wolfpack matches up well against both the potential round two opponents, who lack the size and athleticism necessary to contain the likes of graduate forward DJ Burns and graduate guard Jack Clark inside. Whatever resources they dump into containing NC State’s forwards and wings is bound to take away from defending the perimeter as well, allowing graduate guard Jarkel Joiner the opportunity to continue his heater from the end of the regular season that saw him score 25-plus points in four of NC State’s last six outings.
Making it out of the first game feels like a necessity for the Pack, which is dangerously close to being considered a bubble team for the Big Dance. While seeding predictions for the NCAA Tournament vary from analyst to analyst, any team projected as a 9 to 11 seed has more to prove during conference tournament time. Should NC State move past the second round, its toughest challenge of the year will be right in front of it — beating Clemson.
Moving up into the third seed with Pittsburgh’s loss to Miami, Clemson finds itself in prime position to carry on its dominance over NC State this year. As one of four ACC teams the Wolfpack has failed to beat in its 2022-23 campaign, Clemson finished as the only team to take NC State down twice. The combination of size and athleticism in forward Hunter Tyson and center PJ Hall was the ultimate killer for the Wolfpack in its most recent 96-71 loss to the Tigers.
One beacon of hope for NC State is the prospect of a healthy Clark, something the Pack was missing in the second outing against Clemson. Clark didn’t play for the entirety of the first matchup either, suffering his core injury that sidelined him for multiple weeks towards the end of the game — but by that point the score wasn’t likely to change with him on the court. NC State had looked like a much different team after that loss, however, and when Clark went down again against Wake Forest on Feb. 22, the Pack lost its X-factor for a shot at revenge.
With Clark playing significant time against Duke in NC State’s last regular season outing and having a full week of recovery under his belt as the team awaits the start of the ACC tournament, the graduate transfer is likely to be as healthy as he’s been since the end of the first Clemson game. Limiting opportunities on the low block and praying the Tigers don’t have another 59.6/52.6/81.8 shooting performance will all play a massive factor in NC State’s ability to make it to the quarterfinals.
In the upper half of the lower bracket, two teams stand out as favorites to make it to day four: second-seeded Virginia and seventh-seeded North Carolina. With Miami taking claim as co-champions of the conference and the No. 1 seed in the tournament, the Cavaliers were bumped down to the lower half of the bracket where they could potentially face a North Carolina team that took them down 71-63 in Chapel Hill.
North Carolina’s only shot at the Big Dance at this point in the year is a significant run in the ACC tournament, and a win over Virginia at a neutral site is nothing short of a must-win for the Tar Heels. NC State would much rather face a desperate UNC than the Cavaliers, seeing that the Wolfpack’s most recent matchup with its rival ended in a 77-69 victory. That precedent is far more inviting than a rematch against the team that held NC State to its lowest point total of the season in a 63-50 loss in Charlottesville, Virginia.
If NC State can manage to survive the gauntlet of challenges thrown at it in its half of the bracket, the likes of Miami, Duke, Pittsburgh or a miracle run from any of the four other teams in the upper bracket will be waiting for the Pack. The upper-half features two other conference teams NC State hasn’t been able to beat this year in Pittsburgh and Syracuse, as well as truly formidable opponents in Duke and Miami.
The Hurricanes may be the best matchup for NC State out of all them with their guard-heavy style of play, and NC State has found a way to get the job done against them before. The same runs true for Duke, who the Wolfpack ran out of the gym in early January but came just short of a road upset against on Feb. 28.
Realistically, for peace of mind regarding the NCAA Tournament, NC State needs at least one win this week. Anything after that is icing on the cake for a team that soared past its expectations of finishing 10th in the conference at the beginning of the year. With the ACC tournament returning to Greensboro, the Wolfpack has a golden opportunity to recreate some 1983 magic in the 40-year anniversary of the “Cardiac Pack” in its own backyard.
Game one of NC State’s conference tournament run tips off at 9:30 p.m. on Wednesday, March 8 and will be broadcast live on ESPN2/ESPNU. For live updates on this game and all things NC State Athletics, make sure to follow @TechSports on Twitter.
