With two games left in the 2022-2023 regular season, the Carolina Hurricanes have their eyes set on their first championship since 2006. But before they can hoist the Stanley Cup, the Canes have to beat the best of the rest. As of April 10, here’s who Carolina will likely face in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
New York Islanders (41-30-9)
Assuming the Hurricanes are able to retain first in the Metropolitan, they’ll be facing whoever takes the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. As of now, that may be the New York Islanders, led by goaltender Ilya Sorokin.
Sorokin has been having a monster season — in 60 games, he’s averaged 2.33 goals against with a .925 save percentage. Without the Vezina-worthy goalie play, it’s highly unlikely the Islanders would be a playoff team in the first place.
The Islanders rank 21st in goals per game and their power play percentage is a whopping 15.7%, which is second-worst in the NHL. New York is a team that lacks a point-per-game scorer despite its considerable depth.
That being said, as of April 8, New York star Mathew Barzal has missed the last 20 games with a lower-body injury. Even without their top-line center, the Islanders have been able to weather the storm to go 12-6-2 in those 20 matches. If Barzal isn’t healthy at the start of playoffs, that’s a huge blow to a team that has been up and down all year.
Carolina and New York are teams that play almost identically. Both are offensive powerhouses and minimize goals thanks to suffocating defensive play. The two teams don’t give up a lot of penalties, and when they do, they’re usually killed quickly. Their power plays are worse than the previous season, although the Canes aren’t as bad as the Islanders on the man advantage.
If the two teams end up facing each other, the series will come down to two things: goaltending and depth scoring. While the Islanders’ goaltending duo has been solid all year long, the Hurricanes have gone through a rotating cycle of shaky netminders. Goalies Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov will have an unbelievable shutout one night and then look like a piece of Swiss cheese at the next game.
Over the course of the season, Carolina has gone 3-1-0 against the Islanders. After losing the first matchup to the Isles 6-2, the Canes went on to win the next two in convincing fashion with scores of 3-0 and 5-2. Since the March 3 trade deadline and some significant injuries, the two teams have only seen each other once more, on April 2.
The Hurricanes have lost several key players to injuries like right wing Andrei Svechnikov and left wing Max Pacioretty. The Canes also traded for depth at the deadline, acquiring right wing Jesse Puljujarvi and defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. Notably, New York traded for center Bo Horvat on Jan. 30, who was scoring more than a point per game for the struggling Vancouver Canucks but has yet to find his footing with the Islanders.
While the Islanders have fared well against their opponents leading up to the playoffs, the same can’t be said for Carolina. The Canes, who have gone 7-7-1 since Svechnikov’s injury, are playing musical chairs with their lineup to spark an otherwise stagnant offense.
Out of all the potential Wild Card teams, a Hurricanes-Islanders matchup could be the most worrisome for Carolina. To win the first round, the Canes will need their top scorers to punish Sorokin when he slips up; otherwise, it’ll be a brutally low-scoring affair.
Florida Panthers (42-31-7)
The Florida Panthers are a scary team for the Hurricanes to play in the first round because they score in bunches. On April 1, the Panthers thrashed the Columbus Blue Jackets 7-0, and for a Hurricanes squad struggling to score, it’ll be a challenge to keep pace with a team that produces offensively.
The high-powered Panthers offense is led by left wing Matthew Tkachuk and defenseman Brandon Montour. This past offseason, the Panthers traded a king’s ransom for Tkachuk, which has certainly worked out for him — he’s on pace to set a new career high in points, just needing three more with eight games remaining.
Montour has been on a tear in just his second full season with Florida, scoring 15 goals and totaling 72 points through 78 games. He has stepped up his game massively when his team has needed him most, netting 33 power play points throughout this season. Montour has shared time quarterbacking the Panthers’ top power play unit to make it one of the best in the league when he is on the ice.
Unfortunately for the Panthers, you can’t win a playoff series with just two players playing well — you need a whole team. Compared to last year’s President’s Trophy winner, Florida doesn’t have the same bite as its former self.
You don’t see many teams completely blow up their team after leading the NHL in points like Florida did, but to acquire a young, generational talent such as Tkachuk, they had to do just that. Losing key pieces such as center Jonathan Huberdeau, defenseman MacKenzie Weegar and left wing Mason Marchment left holes that haven’t been filled.
Center Anton Lundell has entered his sophomore slump after scoring 18 goals, 26 assists and 44 points in his rookie year — through April 8, he has 12 goals, 21 assists and 33 points. A key factor to the Panthers’ success last year was left wing Anthony Duclair, who’s only recently returned to the starting lineup after surgery on his torn Achilles tendon.
As of April 10, the Canes have only played the Panthers twice, losing the first 3-0 and winning the second 4-0. On Nov. 9, Florida goaltender Spencer Knight made 30 saves to hand Carolina its first shutout. That being said, the Hurricanes’ power play led them to a win on Dec. 30, accounting for three out of the four goals scored.
The Panthers score a lot, but they also give up lots of opportunities that their starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t done a great job at stopping. If the Canes can find their game and allow defensemen to score goals, they can simultaneously slow down the Panthers’ offense and put some goals of their own on the board.
In games this season where the Panthers or the Canes have scored over five goals, they have gone 20-0-1 and 19-0-0 respectively. Recency bias might have some fans fooled on how well the Hurricanes can score — despite missing key scorers, the Canes have still been able to light up the scoreboard.
The Hurricanes and the Panthers have one more game to play on Thursday, April 13 to round out the regular season. If they do end up facing each other in the first round, that game will be a good benchmark for how the series will pan out.
Keys to getting out of the first round
All year, the Hurricanes have been skimping out on hits. The playoffs ramp up physicality to the extreme, and teams will be hitting even more than they do in the regular season. This is do-or-die — Carolina is going to need to play hard to keep up. If the hits are only going one direction, you’ll get bullied into defeat no matter how much skill you have.
The good thing is that if the Canes can morph into a highly physical team, that will complement their game better than most. The Hurricanes are most successful when the defensemen get involved and have space to shoot, and this space is created when players are drawn around and below the goal line. Hitting hard and finishing checks will allow for shot-heavy defenseman to get the goals they need. Without this, the Canes will struggle to find scoring opportunities and win much-needed games in the postseason.
