Out of all NC State men’s basketball’s wins this season, perhaps none were sweeter than the team’s 77-69 victory over North Carolina this past Sunday.
For the first time since December 2020 — and the first time in front of fans at PNC Arena since 2013 — the Wolfpack knocked off the Tar Heels, getting another quality win and dealing a blow to UNC’s NCAA Tournament hopes.
With just three games left in the regular season, the Pack turns its attention to its postseason outlook as it hopes to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2018. While the team is sitting comfortable with 21 wins, a lot can happen between now and March that will determine postseason positioning.
NC State will first have to get through its three remaining games — home contests against Wake Forest and Clemson before wrapping up the season with a matchup against Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
NC State’s games against Wake Forest and Clemson are already of the utmost importance as both those teams are squarely on the tournament bubble, and losing either game won’t help NC State’s resume.
While its two remaining home contests won’t be easy, especially considering both Wake Forest and Clemson will be playing for their lives, the toughest remaining regular season contest is the Duke game. The Blue Devils are in the tournament field at this point, although they are by no means a lock. In addition to fighting for a resume-builder, they will be looking for revenge against an NC State team that beat them by 24 points earlier in the season.
NC State is favored in both of its remaining home games, and if the team can win each of them, it should feel pretty comfortable about its tournament chances. Add a win against Duke to the mix, and you can mark the Pack as a lock for March Madness.
Right now, NC State is listed as an 8 or 9 seed in most bracket projections, but an excellent way to enhance its positioning would be to do well in the ACC Tournament, which has returned to its rightful home in Greensboro, North Carolina.
At the time of this article’s publishing, the Pack sits fifth in the conference standings. Virginia, Miami, Pitt and Clemson hold the top four spots, but considering only half a game separates NC State and Clemson and that the Tigers still have to go on the road against Virginia, the Pack could very well jump into the upper tier and earn a double-bye.
If NC State is able to accomplish such a feat, one has to like the Pack’s odds at making a run for its first ACC Tournament title since 1987. Virginia and Miami have been the most consistent teams in the conference all season, but neither are unbeatable. Playing in its home state in a season when Duke and UNC aren’t up to their usual standards, this could be the Pack’s year.
But all rankings, records, wins and conference championships are thrown out the window when the NCAA Tournament starts. Any given night, any team in the country can be beaten, and if NC State doesn’t bring it for even just one game, it’ll all be over just like that.
Luckily, the Pack boasts a key ingredient in making a deep tournament run: stellar guard play. Sophomore guard Terquavion Smith and graduate guard Jarkel Joiner have proven themselves to make up one of the best backcourts in the country. If you’ve got two guards that are capable of going off at any time, you’ve got a chance to go far.
However, the issue this season for those two has been consistency. We’ve seen the good — a 45-point combined performance against Duke, Smith’s 32-point showing against Florida State, and oh yeah, Joiner’s electric 29-piece against the Tar Heels. But we’ve also seen the not-so-good — a combined 10 points between the two against Georgia Tech, Smith’s 2-14 shooting performance against Notre Dame and multiple sub-10 outings by Joiner in conference play.
NC State simply can’t afford for one of those two not to show up in the Big Dance. As we’ve learned from watching games against Duke, Miami and UNC, this team will go as far as Smith and Joiner can take it.
While Smith and Joiner are the engine that makes NC State go, the Pack will also need continued production out of graduate forward DJ Burns, who has also established himself as one of the best big men in the ACC.
The biggest issue for Burns throughout conference play has been staying out of foul trouble, which is what teams like UNC, Virginia, Syracuse and others have exploited. As anyone who’s watched NC State this season knows, when Burns plays, he’s nearly unstoppable. The Pack needs him to be available as much as possible.
NC State’s win over UNC wasn’t necessarily about boosting its resume — it was about getting the monkey off the team’s back and giving the fans what they want. Now every game from here on out has postseason implications, and wherever the Pack ends up in March will be influenced heavily by the next seven days.
If there’s a time for the Pack to get hot and start playing its best basketball of the season, it’s right now.
