This past Saturday proved that just when you think you’ve got it all figured out, college football throws a curveball at you. And believe it or not, despite all of the ups and downs thus far, NC State football now has an outside chance to make a run for the ACC Championship game in Charlotte.
Going into Saturday, it looked like it was almost a foregone conclusion that Florida State and North Carolina were on a collision course for the title game. While that may still be the case for the No. 4 Seminoles after toppling Duke, the same can’t be said for UNC-Chapel Hill following its stunning upset loss to Virginia at home.
Carolina’s loss opens the door for a number of teams to crash the party in the Queen City, and yes, one of them is the Wolfpack.
Right now, the Pack sits with a 1-2 ACC record in a tie for ninth place in the conference, which will send the top two teams to the championship in the first season since the Atlantic and Coastal divisions were scrapped. That may seem meager at first glance, but when looking at the schedule and the rest of the standings, a championship run doesn’t seem too far-fetched.
For now, let’s assume that NC State has to win all five of its remaining games to make it to Charlotte, which, in order, are home vs. Clemson, home vs. Miami, at Wake Forest, at Virginia Tech and home vs. UNC.
Granted, none of those will be easy games, and the Pack could just as easily lose the rest of its games as it could win them. However, there isn’t any game left on the schedule that one could definitively say the red-and-white doesn’t have a chance, and for the sake of this article, let’s say that NC State does somehow win out to get to 6-2 in conference play.
As it stands, there are currently eight teams in the ACC other than the Pack that have either one or two conference losses: Louisville (3-1), UNC (3-1), Duke (2-1), Virginia Tech (2-1), Boston College (2-2), Georgia Tech (2-2), Miami (1-2) and Virginia (1-2). Clemson, Wake Forest, Pitt and Syracuse round out the standings with three losses apiece and are all but eliminated from contending for the championship at this point.
If NC State was to run the table, that would bring Miami down to three losses and Virginia Tech and Carolina down to two. That leaves Louisville and Duke as the two teams with one loss apiece, and this is where it gets tricky, especially considering the Pack lost to both earlier in the season.
The Blue Devils and the Cardinals play this Saturday in Louisville, Duke still has to play UNC in Chapel Hill and Louisville has to play at Miami. Between those three games, there’s a good chance that both Duke and Louisville each lose at least once, which would give them each their second conference loss.
Given that both Duke and Louisville already beat NC State earlier this season, that would give each team the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Pack should they all finish with the same conference record. However, it becomes more complex when there is a tie between three or more teams.
As outlined in the tiebreaker policy for the new championship game format, there are many tie-breaking procedures for a multiple-team tie, and it isn’t worth the time to delve into all of the potential scenarios in this article. However, the point is that if it somehow runs the table and finishes the regular season with a 6-2 conference record, NC State could find itself in a multiple-team tie for second place, and if that happens, who knows? Maybe luck will be in the Pack’s favor.
The elephant in the room in all of this is if NC State can get it figured out on offense, but that’s another discussion for a different set of columns.
I’ll finish off by saying this: although a lot can happen between now and then, there is a very real possibility that the game between NC State and UNC at the end of the season could decide who advances to the ACC Championship.
Just imagine: Carter-Finley Stadium, with the ACC Championship game on the line, against the big, bad Tar Heels. The place would be set on fire.
Will NC State get there? Only time will tell.
