The NC State basketball team has already dropped two games early in the season, making it one of just five teams in the ACC to do so. Last week’s quality win over No. 22 LSU, however, has cast a more optimistic tone on the team’s 4-2 record.
An opening-night defeat to William & Mary transcended the scoreboard; it was a morale-killer for many who saw the team’s weak non-conference slate as an opportunity for growth before facing a grueling conference schedule. A severe ankle injury sustained by junior guard Terry Henderson had Wolfpack fans’ heads collectively spinning as they wondered who would pick up the scoring load.
Follow-up games with lowly South Alabama and IUPUI gave the team an opportunity to solve that problem, and the Pack came up with four answers: Anthony “Cat” Barber, Caleb Martin, Maverick Rowan and Abdul Malik-Abu, all of whom averaged 15 points or more during the first three games.
Rowan, the only freshman of the bunch, was undoubtedly the biggest surprise. Although he was known for his scoring prowess in high school, it’s not typical to see any true freshman, let alone an early-enrollee, assume such an integral offensive role this early on in his career.
Coming into a neutral-site matchup with Arizona State, the Wolfpack looked more confident and seemed to be in control for most of the first half. However, the team’s lack of frontcourt depth revealed itself as an issue in the second half, as Abu, Lennard Freeman and BeeJay Anya all appeared exhausted by their opponent’s up-tempo style. Each of the big-men got into foul trouble early, and the Sun Devils finished with an 18-10 advantage on the offensive glass while shooting over 50 percent on two-point shots.
The Wolfpack needed to bounce back against a ranked LSU squad the following night and did exactly that in a back-and-forth affair that culminated in a dominating overtime performance where NC State scored the final 10 points to win 83-72. Barber’s perfect 12-for-12 display at the free-throw line was integral, but it was sophomore Cody Martin’s gritty defensive play and efficient scoring that likely boosted the team to victory.
An 87-79 win against Winthrop on Friday propelled the team to 4-2 on the season and included a career-high point total for Barber (37), but after such an inconsistent streak of basketball, what are we to make of this team, and where must it improve moving forward?
If the Wolfpack has any identity thus far, it is mistake-free offense and low-pressure defense. With only seven players an active part of the rotation until Henderson returns from injury, the Pack cannot afford to play fast-tempo, up-and-down basketball, so the team is keeping the ball in the sure hands of Barber and allowing opponents to move the ball around the perimeter and take shots far from the basket, where fouls are unlikely to be committed and shorten an already diminutive rotation.
State’s 14.9 percent turnover rate places it 39th out of 351 Division I schools. Moreover, State ranks 35th in the country in free throws against; clearly the strategy is paying off in these respects, but the team is paying for it elsewhere.
The Wolfpack’s increased usage of zone defense has resulted in just 6.3 steals per game, good for 303rd nationally. This brand of defense also comes with the side effect of more open three-pointers, something opponents are taking advantage of. Through six games, only 18 schools are allowing more points to opponents off of shots from beyond the arc — and at a 35.7 percent clip, schools are shooting against State efficiently.
Barber has the adequate recovery speed to fit the scheme, but Rowan and the Martins are less natural fits beside him on the perimeter, though head coach Mark Gottfried will have to manage with those three until Henderson returns.
Offensively, State simply has to start making more of its shots. Despite taking good care of the ball, the team isn’t finding open shots in the paint, mainly because the Pack lacks three-point shooting threats to spread defenses out — NC State currently ranks 315th in portion of scoring from beyond the arc.
Much was made of Barber’s improving shot, but he is 0-7 on the season and despite the efficiency of Caleb Martin — 40 percent — the team plainly needs more volume. Rowan is adding eight attempts per game but at just a 33.3 percent clip. If he can’t quickly adjust to the deeper college arc and Barber doesn’t regain his confidence, the offense will struggle mightily until Henderson, a career 38.5 percent three-point shooter, returns to the lineup.
Clearly, the unforeseen loss of Henderson is causing issues for the Pack on both sides of the ball, but with an estimated return still four to six weeks out, those issues won’t solve themselves anytime soon. Gottfried is known for engendering impressive growth in young players by season’s end, but he has his work cut out for him in terms of getting this team to a fifth-straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
