After the NC State basketball team lost to Cincinnati at home to close out non-conference play, Wolfpack Nation had few optimistic feelings about the start of the ACC schedule.
The Wolfpack was sitting at 10-4 and had looked shockingly bad in its losses to West Virginia and Cincinnati.
State had a brutal gauntlet against No. 3 Virginia, No. 2 Duke and No. 15 North Carolina to look forward to at the beginning of the team’s ACC slate. A trip to the Big Dance was the last thing on anyone’s mind.
Just three weeks later, the Pack is poised for a fourth-straight NCAA Tournament appearance with an improved seeding from last year’s First Four draw.
State is now 13-6, with a 4-2 record in the ACC, including a huge win over Duke. The Wolfpack is currently projected to be a 10-seed in the East Region with a date against the seventh-seeded Georgetown Hoyas, according to Joe Lunardi of ESPN, and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports lists the Wolfpack as an 11-seed facing Oklahoma State.
State is ranked as a “First Four Bye”, meaning they are just above the final four teams included in the Tournament.
When selecting teams for the Tournament, the NCAA Selection Committee looks at several factors when deciding which team makes it through and which have their bubbles popped. These factors include RPI, quality wins, strength of schedule and bad losses.
A team’s RPI, or Rating Percentage Index, is a device used by the NCAA to establish seedings for the Tournament. RPI gives credit to teams that schedule tough teams and then beat them, with bonus points for road wins.
Currently, State sits 36th in RPI, one spot in front of Michigan State. A team can generally feel safe sitting anywhere north of 40th in the rankings.
The Pack’s win over Duke on Jan. 11 propelled the team into the top 40 and out of the danger zone. NC State dodged an RPI disaster by holding steady to beat Florida State (163rd) in Tallahassee Saturday.
State can boast good wins over Duke, Louisiana Tech, Tennessee and Boise State, all of which are regarded highly by the NCAA. The team’s losses to Virginia, UNC-Chapel Hill, West Virginia, Cincinnati and yes, even Wofford, will not hurt the Wolfpack on Selection Sunday, as all these teams are projected to be Tournament-bound.
A road loss to Purdue may turn out to be the loan blemish on the Wolfpack’s resume if the squad continues to take care of business for the remainder of the season.
Looking forward, State plays a huge game this week against Miami, a team which is firmly on the bubble. Winning could allow the Hurricanes to vault the Pack on the bubble, while a win in Coral Gables would be huge for the State.
State has three potential RPI boosters left on its schedule, with the team welcoming No. 2 Virginia to PNC Arena before traveling to No. 10 Louisville and No. 15 UNC-CH.
Knocking the Cavaliers from the ranks of the unbeaten could be the easiest way for State to breathe easy on Selection Sunday. The Wolfpack must avoid bad losses against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech to close the season, and the team’s RPI should remain intact.
The Pack will also have the option of earning quality wins during the ACC Tournament to vault them into the Big Dance, similar to the route of the 2013-2014 squad. However, the opportunity is there for this young State team to lock up a NCAA Tournament berth in the regular season — something no one in Raleigh could have seen coming three weeks ago.
