Three days after taking down then No. 2 Duke and handing the Blue Devils their first loss of the season, NC State looks to take its momentum into the third game of a trio of formidable ranked ACC opponents in its biggest rival: No. 15 UNC-Chapel Hill.
This game is crucial on many levels. One, the Pack needs to prove that beating one of the top teams in the country was not a fluke. Two, after getting swept by the Tar Heels last season, NC State needs to prove that it can stand up to the team that has dominated the rivalry in recent years, as UNC has won the last 10 of 11 matchups.
With last season’s leading scorer TJ Warren leaving NC State to go pro, the team needed a new scorer to fill the void. Redshirt junior guard Trevor Lacey has done exactly that, averaging 16.9 points per game, including 21 against Duke. Redshirt senior guard Ralston Turner and sophomore guard Anthony “Cat” Barber have also stepped up, averaging 13.3 and 11.4 points per game respectively. Both are up three points from their last season averages.
State has relied heavily on the backcourt presences of Lacey, Turner and Barber to put points on the board this season. However, in addition to scoring, the Pack backcourt will need to play exceptional defense against junior guard Marcus Paige and junior forward J.P. Tokoto. Paige and Tokoto do not shoot the ball at a particularly high level, yet Paige anchors the team in scoring with 13.3 points per game, while the team ranks 17th in the nation in points per game.
This can be partly explained by Carolina’s exceptional ability to take what defenses give them. The Heels rank eighth in the nation in assists per game with 17.8, 4.1 from Tokoto and 3.6 from Paige.
The Tar Heels also rebound the ball exceptionally well, as they rank second in the NCAA in offensive rebounds and 16th in defensive rebounds. NC State will need its big men to continue their stellar play and win the rebound battles against a North Carolina team that has created matchup problems against opponents all season.
Sophomore forward Kennedy Meeks leads the team with 8.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. Meeks has a big, powerful, frame that is similar to NC State sophomore forward Beejay Anya. While Anya out blocks Meeks with 3.1 per game, Meeks has a more polished post game, and puts up 12.8 points per game compared to Anya’s 5.1. The two behemoths weigh in at 580 pounds combined, which should make for a rare and entertaining matchup.
Another Tar Heel player to watch will be junior forward Brice Johnson, who averages 11.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Unlike Meeks, Johnson has a much slimmer frame at 210 pounds, but his athleticism and aggressiveness makes up for any lack of power.
Despite the close records of the Wolfpack and Tar Heels, UNC Chapel-Hill is clearly a better team than NC State on paper. However, stats do not by any means tell the whole story. This game will likely come down to whoever rebounds better and opens up more scoring opportunities for their teammates.
The NC State bigs will be the key in this contest. If the Pack post players can continue their dominant play and create more scoring opportunities for a Wolfpack unit that shot an incredible 62.5 percent from beyond the arc against the Duke Blue Devils, PNC Arena may very well witness a second straight statement victory.
