With its 45-34 victory over NC State last weekend, UNC-Chapel Hill’s football team preserved some hope of earning a place in the College Football Playoff’s field of four, which will officially be announced Sunday at noon.
The Tar Heels have rolled through 11-straight opponents, with their only loss of the season coming in the season-opener against South Carolina. However, given the pitiful state of ACC’s coastal division this year, that streak includes very few quality wins, the most impressive of which was likely the most recent in Raleigh. The playoff committee is also unlikely to overlook that the team’s single loss came against the lowly 3-9 Gamecocks.
Despite all of this, UNC remains alive in the playoff race because they have an opportunity to knock off the nation’s No.1 team, Clemson, when the two meet for the ACC Championship on Saturday. But before we examine their likelihood of victory in that game, let’s look at what outside help the Tar Heels need to get a shot at the playoff.
Practically speaking, only two of the four playoff spots are left up for grabs. Oklahoma secured one spot by dominating Oklahoma State en route to a Big 12 championship last weekend and another spot will go to the winner of the Big Ten championship between No. 4 Iowa and No. 5 Michigan State.
UNC already received some good fortune over the weekend when the ACC’s own Florida State thrashed No. 12 Florida, which would have made the SEC championship (Saturday vs. No. 2 Alabama) essentially a play-in game with a win over the Seminoles. Now, a victory over Alabama would likely only accomplish knocking the Crimson Tide out of the playoff as the 10-2 Gators simply have too much ground to make up.
For argument’s sake, let’s say Florida and UNC win their respective conference championships — if either of these doesn’t happen, the Tar Heels playoff aspirations are dashed. Which team, in this case, would remain in the running for the final two spots? Realistically, it would be North Carolina, Ohio State, Stanford, and still Clemson.
Ohio State doesn’t play this weekend, so its resume is set and in solid shape coming off a demolition of Michigan. Stanford will play an unranked USC in the Pac-12 championship Saturday, but even with a win, it’s hard to imagine them jumping the Buckeyes in the rankings. There’s also a veritable chance that USC beats Stanford, rendering these considerations null and void. For our scenario, Stanford is out.
Let’s then compare UNC’s prospective resume to that of Ohio State. Both would have just one loss, with Ohio State’s being more recent but to a much higher-quality opponent — potential playoff team versus SEC bottom-feeder. UNC would have the most impressive win (the hypothetical one vs. Clemson) but the remainder of their schedule would be too weak to compare; Ohio State gets one bid.
The only team left to compare to would be Clemson, which would be coming off its first loss of the season. The Tigers would boast many more quality wins (at Louisville, Notre Dame and Florida State), but could the committee give them the bid over the team they just lost to head-to-head? The committee would undoubtedly be split on this issue and it would likely come down to how each team looked Saturday night; Clemson would have a hard case to make if they were blown out the night before.
Putting all of the previous explanation in perspective now, the Tar Heels stand little chance of making the playoff. There are simply far too many potential roadblocks to their dream scenario that could put it to an end before they even take the field at 8 p.m., the most obvious being the requirement that Alabama loses to a much-less impressive Florida team. But, with all of these variables in play, there’s one thing to be sure of: Saturday will be monumentally entertaining and a timely distraction from the impending first week of finals.
