After getting off to a great start in conference play, and even tying for the lead at one point, the Pack now finds itself at the center of a four-game losing streak and a state of desperation to land an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament.
With Selection Sunday coming up on March 11 and two regular season games left against Miami and Virginia Tech before the ACC Tournament in Atlanta begins, State will need to kick it into high gear to make a run to the big dance. This would likely include at least winning both regular season games and advancing to the ACC semifinal round.
Aside from the reality check needed for State to pull off this late season comeback and make it to the tournament for the first time since 2006, it will need some help from some of the other bubble teams to make this happen.
Miami, Xavier, Northwestern and Saint Joseph’s will likely be the teams the Pack will need to tear asunder themselves to get an at-large bid. Luckily for State, it will have a chance to take The U out of the equation on Wednesday when they face off at the RBC Center and possibly in the ACC Tournament, depending on how the seeding will work out.
Another lucky draw for the Wolfpack — Xavier and St. Joseph’s are both in the same conference, the Atlantic 10. Also, because the selection committee doesn’t traditionally see it as a “power conference,” this could also help clear a spot for an at-large bid because one will eliminate the other. Aside from the conference tournament champion, which will probably be Temple, the committee will likely pick one other team from the conference for an at-large bid.
As far as Northwestern, it is very likely that the Wildcats will make the tournament. Despite currently having a 7-9 record in conference play, it has the strength of schedule argument on its side. They play in the same conference as Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin, who have all been ranked at some point this season, and they also picked up a key win against Michigan State this season.
The Big 10 is certainly no walk in the park on a nightly basis, so the selection committee will probably reward Northwestern for beating a ranked opponent and maintaining its placement in the middle of the pack in one of the most difficult conferences in college basketball.
Another dark horse team the Pack would probably need some help from is the University of Southern Florida. It is currently holding on to the fifth spot in the Big East with an 11-5 record. Its record certainly doesn’t say that it’s a “dark horse” team, but the Bulls haven’t picked up any signature wins, and they are going into what is arguably the most difficult conference tournament format, winning five games in five days if you don’t land a top-5 seed. This could be the issue as USF will face off against Louisville and West Virginia.
With all this talk of an improbable at-large bid, let’s not forget about the possibility of the Pack taking the conference tournament and earning an automatic bid, which would probably eliminate the painful memories of the tail end of the regular season from the consciousness of most fans.
State has managed to rip off runs with its back against the wall in the past. Former decorated Head Coach Jim Valvano did lead a squad that finished under .500 to the ACC Tournament title in 1987, so nothing is impossible.
