With the football team needing to win three games in a row to become eligible for a bowl game, fans must face the distinct possibility the season will be over less than three weeks from now. With this in mind, many have already turned their attention to the upcoming basketball season.
Despite being picked to finish last in the ACC by the media, some fans are holding out high hopes due to the play of Javier Gonzalez and Tracy Smith late last year. Those with optimistic outlooks on the basketball team also cite the freshman class, which includes at least four players likely to earn significant playing time if nothing else.
But I have a bad feeling those expecting the basketball team to prove the prognosticators are as wrong about it as they were about this football season are going to end up thoroughly disappointed. Even if Smith and Gonzalez play as well as they did down the stretch last season, I don’t see this team having much success after going 6-10 in the ACC a year ago. And the team didn’t just struggle last season, it also lost its top three scorers, Ben McCauley, Brandon Costner, and Courtney Fells. Granted, no one will miss Costner, who seemed determine to do whatever his teammates needed of him, so long as it wouldn’t require him to sweat. Neither Fells nor McCauley was ever phenomenal, but the absence of their experience and scoring will be sorely missed.
One reason I am keeping my expectations for this season grounded is the possibility of Gonzalez and Smith struggling to duplicate their success late last season with defenses focused on them. Gonzalez has shown flashes of brilliance at times during his first two years here, but has also struggled mightily at others, as evidenced by the final 22 games a year ago. After a 12 game span in which he played a grand total of 18 minutes, Gonzalez started the final 10 games of the season and averaged 11 points a game over the final eight of those. If Gonzalez can play the way he did during those final eight games, then this team is certainly capable of shocking a lot of people. But considering the inconsistent nature of his career to this point, it’s hard to expect that to happen.
Like Gonzalez, Smith played extremely well late last season, starting 12 of the last 13 games and averaging 12 points a game in his 12 starts. To me, the question with Smith is less about him and more about opposing defenses. Defenses will surely try to take Smith out of games as much as possible, and it is hard to say for certain if Smith will dominate the way some expect him to as a 6’8 post player facing constant double teams. It’s not that I necessarily think either of one of these players is incapable of having a great season, I just wholeheartedly disagree with those that seem convinced both players will be every bit as good every game this year as they were for the final third of the year last season.
Another reason the season might be a long one is strength of the ACC. With four teams in the conference nationally ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 and four more receiving votes, nearly every game in conference play will pit the Pack against strong opposition. This is nothing new to fans, but with a team that looks like it will have four true freshmen seeing significant minutes, people expecting those young players to play well so early in their careers against such quality opposition might want to think twice. Considering the way many eventual ACC stars struggle initially, modest expectations for the freshman class would have been wise this summer. And that was before it was revealed that the star of the class, shooting guard Lorenzo Brown, will not be playing for the Pack this season.
It almost goes without saying that State fans are always risking bitter disappointment by expecting good things to happen, regardless of the sport. With the coming basketball season in particular, fans expecting State to shock the ACC by finishing in the middle of the pack or better might want to think again.
