The NC State men’s basketball team will face an interesting foe on Wednesday, the No. 15 Florida State Seminoles. Entering the season, these squads had similar storylines.
“[Head coach] Mark Gottfried will have his most talented team since arriving in Raleigh,” Jeff Goodman told ESPN. “He’ll have stud freshman point guard Dennis Smith Jr., plenty of wings with Maverick Rowan, Terry Henderson and Torin Dorn and no shortage of quality bigs with Omer Yurtseven, Abdul-Malik Abu and Beejay Anya.”
The Seminoles (20-4, 8-3 ACC) also entered this season with one of the most talented teams in the country. Freshman Jonathan Isaac and sophomore Dwayne Bacon are surefire locks for the first round of the 2017 NBA Draft. Like the Pack, the Seminoles’ backcourt was stacked, imposing offensive prowess from virtually everywhere on the floor.
Both teams had similar starting points, but the difference between these programs is that one team has pieced it together and the other has only exhibited flashes of greatness.
Jay Bilas, an analyst and commentator for ESPN, predicted a NCAA first-round appearance as NC State’s worst-case scenario for the 2016-17 basketball season. Currently the Wolfpack (14-10, 3-8 ACC) finds itself on the outside looking in, well out of reach of a tournament appearance.
NC State is 13th in ACC standings after suffering yet another disappointing loss, this time against the Miami Hurricanes, 84-79. In addition to losing three straight, this was the second straight matchup where the Pack was up by at least 12 points, yet found a way to lose the game.
The most glaring issue with the Wolfpack is obviously the defense. In NC State’s last matchup, it shot a tremendous 56.3 percent from the field and 61.1 percent from long range, yet allowed the Hurricanes to shoot nearly exact percentages.
However, the difference in Saturday’s contest was dominance on the glass and bench help. The Pack recorded a dismal 21 boards, while Miami grabbed 36, 17 of which were offensive. Rebounding for the Pack has been an issue all year long, as State has a -1 rebounding margin in conference play.
Even though freshman point guard Dennis Smith Jr. had a spectacular day against Miami with 31 points and nine assists recorded, he received almost no help from the Pack bench.
NC State received two, yes two, points from the bench, coming from sophomore guard Torin Dorn. Outside of Dorn, senior BeeJay Anya and freshmen Markell Johnson and Ted Kapita combined for 13 minutes of action in Saturday’s contest. On the other hand, Miami played three players outside of its starting core.
The Hurricanes got a solid 35 points on from the bench. While it is easy to blame the NC State players for the poor reserve performance, the real statistic to watch is minutes played. Miami played reserves for a combined 68 minutes compared to the Pack’s 13. The NC State starting five is shouldering the burden and getting completely worn out in the process.
Isaac and Bacon are the obvious statistical studs of this Seminole team. Isaac is the team’s leading rebounder, averaging 7.9 per game, anchoring a Florida State team which averages the third-most boards per game in the ACC. Bacon has matured in his sophomore season, taking smarter shots has resulted in his respectable 17.6 points per game.
Expect minutes played to come into play once more against the Seminoles. NC State has four players averaging 30 minutes or more per game, which could be the cause to the late-game collapses. Meanwhile, Florida State has zero players that average 30 minutes per game, but is receiving incredible play from its deep bench. Eleven players on the Seminoles are averaging at least 12 minutes per game, resulting in their highly-energized style of play.
NC State needs help from its bench and boards from its frontcourt in this matchup. Yurtseven, Abu and Kapita are going to be paramount to NC State’s success on the glass. Yurtseven’s physicality has been a recurring issue this season, and he must establish himself as a force against Isaac in this game.
In the beginning of the season, this could have been a matchup between two of the top teams in the ACC. NC State and Florida State boast top-tier squads in terms of talent. The Wolfpack has struggled mightily throughout the season, suffering crushing tournament resume losses to the likes of Wake Forest, Syracuse, Miami, Georgia Tech, etc. Florida State is the team NC State could have been if it was able to put the pieces of the puzzle together. If the Pack has any hope of making the NCAA Tournament or even the NIT, the games from here on out are all must-wins.
Tip-off against the Seminoles is Wednesday at 7 p.m. in the Donald L. Tucker Center.
