When was the last time NC State played in a football game between two top-15 teams? Dec. 31, 1992, No. 12 NC State lost 27-10 to No. 14 Florida in the Peach Bowl. The last time NC State played in a game in week nine that had national championship implications for both teams? As far back as my research goes, never.
This week NC State will play in a game that is on a short list of most important games in school history. With a win, the Pack would play in an even bigger game against Clemson. Has NC State ever had a two-game stretch this important? The answer is a resounding no.
Think about it: NC State has a chance to not only make a name for itself playing in the biggest games of the week across the country, and possibly of the year, but put itself in the driver’s seat for one of four playoff spots as we head down the stretch. Of course, it would take wins over No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 7 Clemson, but this team has proven in the last two years, it can play with any team in the country. If, and it’s a huge if, State wins both of these games, the Pack would be in uncharted territory, controlling its destiny for the ACC and a spot in the four-team playoff, with only a handful of games left to play.
Many fans have expressed concern about the possibility of NC State sitting at 12-1 as ACC champions and getting left out of the playoffs. Do not worry, Pack fans. A team with wins over three top-15 teams: Clemson, Notre Dame and either Virginia Tech or Miami in the ACC championship game is a lock for the final four. Not to mention, State already has wins over Syracuse, Florida State, Louisville, and even Marshall, which are all solid bowl teams.
Of course, NC State has lots of work to do to get to this point, and it starts this weekend against a top-10 team, in what is essentially a playoff elimination game. The loser of this game is for all intents and purposes, eliminated from being a top-four team at the end of the year. Notre Dame just obliterated USC in what was also a playoff elimination game. If NC State wins, it will play another elimination game next week against Clemson, assuming the Tigers beat Georgia Tech this weekend.
ESPN gives State a 6 percent chance to make the playoffs. With a win over Notre Dame, the odds jump to 17 percent, which is still a long way to go. For reference, Alabama has a 69 percent chance to make the playoffs, but no other team has better than a 39 percent chance. It probably won’t happen, but it’s more possible than it’s ever been for the Wolfpack.
The beauty of where the Pack sits right now is that even with a loss against the Irish, the Pack can come back the next weekend and put a stranglehold on the Atlantic Division with a win over Clemson. As exciting as the playoffs are, it’s not likely the Pack gets there. On the other hand, winning the Atlantic Division is absolutely within reach. If the Pack beats Clemson on Nov. 4, it will only need one more win in three games to reach the ACC championship game. Even with a loss to Clemson, State can still win the Atlantic by winning the rest of its games, but it’ll need the Tigers to lose a game.
But for this week, Pack fans can dream big, really big. Can you imagine Carter-Finley Stadium next week if State beats the Irish? That would be a likely top-10 matchup, the biggest game in stadium history, possibly with College GameDay on campus, and potentially the game of the week on ABC. Chill bumps. The Pack has never had an opportunity like the one that awaits it the next two weeks.
Personally, I don’t think playoff talk is unrealistic for three reasons. One, the Pack hasn’t played its best football yet. Yes, the team has had nice wins, but there’s absolutely room for this team to improve. Second, turnovers are a stat that has a bit of luck involved. For the most part, the Pack has won games without forcing turnovers, which is surprising because of how good the defense is. If State can start forcing fumbles and off-balance throws, with a little luck, those will be turnovers, that will help the cause even more.
Third, State has the best player on the field every single time it steps on the field, Bradley Chubb. Defensive ends have single-handedly won games before. A prime example was the 2016 Super Bowl when Von Miller of the Denver Broncos won the MVP award. If the team has a bad game, Chubb can win the game by himself.
It is a good time to be an NC State fan. It’s week nine and the Pack can prove itself a national contender in the next two weeks. It’s going to be nerve-wracking, but also fun and fans should embrace it. Things will change for better or worse over the next two Saturdays, either further out in uncharted waters as national championship contenders, or back in more familiar territory at 6-3.
Whatever happens, it’s been a fun ride to get here, and this team is special. Maybe not playoff special, but it doesn’t take the playoffs to have a special season. However, if there’s any State team that can embrace this uncharted territory and make the playoffs, this is it.
