As February and the midway point of conference play approaches, questions are aplenty in ACC men’s basketball. In more cases than not, teams are defying preseason expectations, in both directions, and it’s hard to tell how the season plays out from here. Instead, let’s assess where the conference currently stands.
Let’s start by answering the easiest question: Which team is the worst in the ACC? Though fans from skidding schools like Pittsburgh (12-7, 1-5 ACC) and NC State (13-7, 2-5) would like to toss their names in this hat, Boston College (9-11, 2-5) will likely hold onto this crown for the season, due to its absolutely anemic offense. It has the two worst losses in the conference — in its opener to Nicholls State and more recently to Hartford — so despite putting up a respectable fight against UNC-Chapel Hill (18-3, 6-1), it’s hard to rank Boston College above any other team.
While a team like Boston College came into the season with no expectations, making wins over Syracuse and NC State gravy, the struggle for other schools to find their groove has to be particularly bitter. The most disappointing performances have come from NC State and Syracuse (11-9, 3-4), the latter coming off of a trip to the NCAA’s Final Four but has few quality wins to its name and a legitimate shot to finish conference play with a losing record.
Similar to NC State, the Orange has looked fine on offense, but simply have no answer defensively and opponents are killing them on the offensive glass. I must insert a disclaimer that I do not mean to put Syracuse’s defense in the same class as the Wolfpack’s, which soundly takes the cake — or should I say cupcake — for weakest defensive effort. Seven games into ACC play, NC State’s opponents are using just over half the shot clock (15.1 seconds on average), but still have an effective shooting percentage of 53.9 percent (fifth worst in the league). Offensively, turnovers continue to be the sore spot for the Pack.
On a positive note for the NC State program, freshman Dennis Smith Jr. remains the best candidate for ACC Freshman of the Year. The Swiss Army point guard has arguably been the team’s strongest player on both sides of the ball, leading the conference in assist rate and steal rate while ranking second in fouls drawn and fifth in scoring. There’s a reason why he remains a projected top-five pick on most NBA Draft boards, and given Harry Giles’ (Duke) slow return from injury, Smith should be the first ACC product chosen.
Among all players, several are making a good case for ACC Player of the Year, but there are no clear candidates as Malcolm Brogdon and Brice Johnson were in 2016. One thing’s for sure: The preseason choice of Duke’s Grayson Allen is all but officially out of the race — in part due to the team’s disappointing play but primarily because of his sharp drop in efficiency and his inability to stop tripping dudes. Sportsmanship still counts for something, right?
My current choice for ACC POY is Notre Dame (17-3, 6-1) forward Bonzie Colson, who leads the conference in rebounding while putting up a cool 15.4 points per game on 47 percent shooting. Consider also his low turnover rate (just 1.4 per game) and reliability from the free throw line (87 percent) and you see that he’s a really efficient player who also plays strong defense. Colson also happens to be leading a surging Notre Dame squad that is currently a four-seed in ESPN’s bracketology after being picked to finish seventh (behind NC State) in the ACC preseason poll.
One team playing great balanced team ball but without a real superstar is Florida State (18-2, 6-1). A neutral site loss to Temple is the lone blemish on a stellar resume that includes a road win over Virginia (15-3, 5-2) and home wins over Duke, Notre Dame and Louisville (16-4, 4-3). The Seminoles rank 22nd and 23rd in Ken Pom’s Adjusted Efficiency ratings on offense and defense, up 25 and 44 spots over 2016, respectively. Freshman power forward Jonathan Isaac has been the biggest boon to this team’s production with consistent scoring (13.3 points) and strong defensive presence. Also, sophomore wing Dwayne Bacon has improved his shot selection and now fits the role of a high-volume scorer.
While Florida State has earned some respect, the choice of best team in the conference comes down to UNC-CH, Virginia and Louisville. Across the board, Louisville is the strongest defensively, with its one weakness being average rebounding, but can’t keep up with UNC-CH and Virginia on offense. These two have very unique styles, the former relying on athleticism and lots of transition scoring while the latter prefers to slow the place and trust in Tony Bennett’s system. It’s hard to say which is better, as both have had ups and downs this season, but for now I’ll simply lean on the side of more depth and better coaching — that’s the Virginia Cavaliers.
