Overall, I have fared well writing Wolfpack Wager, so let’s continue the success in week 12’s edition with two ACC overs and an easy SEC pick.
Louisville at NC State (Total: 56)
With the Pack losing three in a row, I’m tempted to take NC State to cover 3.5, but the trust isn’t there at all right now, so the total seems a more promising bet.
NC State gave up 55 points to Clemson, something it shouldn’t be penalized for, but the defense also allowed 44 to Wake Forest and 45 to Boston College in the games before. The Wolfpack ranks 76th in the nation in points allowed at 28.7 per game, a number that is being weighed down a little by the first two blowout wins against East Carolina and Western Carolina.
The problem is on the other side of the ball, where NC State has scored 10 points in each of the last two games and has failed to score more than 24 points since the Ball State game in late September. However, this week, that is going to change.
Redshirt freshman Devin Leary is going to get back on track against a Louisville defense that has been carved apart by almost every opponent. Louisville ranks 112th in the country in points allowed, averaging 34.1, and is up to 41.8 allowed in ACC games. If NC State is going to put up more points, it’s going to happen against Louisville. And honestly, it has to be against Louisville, as the 4-5 Pack are running out of chances to get to six wins.
The Pick: Over 56
Florida (-7) at Missouri
In the best conference in football, anybody can win any week, especially if we are talking about teams not named Alabama, LSU or Georgia, but this spread seems off.
Florida has been in the national conversation quite a bit this year, ranked as high as No. 7 in the AP poll. Its 8-2 record comes only with losses to LSU, which was still close to the end of the game, and Georgia, a seven-point loss on Nov. 2. Not to mention, the Gators dismantled Vanderbilt last week 56-0, a team Missouri lost to by a touchdown.
If Florida wasn’t in the SEC, it would probably be one of the best teams in the country, and it could be the best two-loss team in the nation right now. Missouri, on the other hand, has lost three in a row to Vandy, Kentucky and Georgia.
Despite both teams being in the top 20 in points allowed per game this season, Missouri has failed in its main test of the season, and it seems unlikely Missouri turns it around against the 11th-ranked team.
The Pick: Florida -7
Wake Forest at Clemson (Total: 60.5)
Here is the second ACC total pick in the article. I’m a little less confident about this pick, but there are points written all over this game. Clemson is a 34.5-point favorite in this game, and I’d probably bet the Deacs to cover, but NC State fans know that both these teams can score.
Wake Forest put up 44 on NC State, and Clemson scored 55. Although Clemson has one of the best defenses in the country, Wake Forest should easily score a couple of touchdowns against a less-motivated Clemson team this week, and Clemson’s high-powered offense will do the rest.
With both teams ranked as a top-25 scoring offense in the country, this matchup has the potential to go well over the set total.
The Pick: Over 60.5
Last week, Technician video editor Jaylan Harrington went with 2-1 with the NC State-Clemson game going over and LSU beating Alabama, but Boston College lost to Florida State.
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