It’s conference championship week in the college football world, and we’ve got a lot of games with large spreads. Of the 10 FBS conference championship games, all 10 feature spreads of 6.5 or higher, and three are in the double digits. In addition, six of the 10 have totals between 54 and 57, so we should be in for a lot of points this weekend. Here are some of the more favorable lines.
No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 6 Oklahoma (Total: 64.5)
The Big 12 championship game is a rematch of a top-15 matchup we saw just a few weeks ago. Oklahoma overcame a 31-10 second-half deficit to win that game 34-31 on the road in Waco. Coincidentally, this line is set basically right at where that game’s total fell. I’m expecting the rematch to be even more of a fireworks show. Oklahoma is averaging 44.3 points per game, and I don’t expect them to score just 10 points in the first half again. Meanwhile, Baylor is scoring over 36 points per game and is fresh off putting up 61 points in a road win over Kansas. I’m expecting both teams to come out firing, and I like the over in a game that could be a win-and-you’re-in for the College Football Playoff.
The pick: Over 64.5
No. 13 Oregon vs. No. 5 Utah (-6.5)
The PAC-12 Championship this year is a matchup between the conference’s best chance of earning its first College Football Playoff bid since the 2016-17 season in Utah and the conference’s most recent national championship appearance in Oregon. Were it not for a slip up on the road against Arizona State, Oregon would likely be ranked No. 5 instead of Utah, and this would be the win-and-you’re-in game. Instead, Oregon now has a chance to play spoiler against a Utah team that has won by less than 18 points just once since a Sept. 20 loss to Southern California. The Ducks will be out for revenge against the Utes, who knocked them out of a chance to play in the same game last year. I think these are two dead-even teams, and if Oregon didn’t slip up against Arizona State, the Ducks would likely be favored in this game. Because of that, with Oregon getting almost a touchdown against Utah, take the points.
The pick: Oregon (+6.5)
No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Total: 57)
In a matchup between two top-10 defenses in points allowed, rushing yards, passing yards and total yards allowed, the total is set at a mind-boggling 57. Ohio State is allowing just under 12 points per game, and teams are only scoring 14.6 points per game against Wisconsin. The Buckeyes aren’t just No. 1 for their defense, though. They lead the country in scoring at 49.9 points per game and just eviscerated a strong Michigan defense for 56 points. But Ohio State has yet to play a defense as good as the Badgers’, and with Wisconsin’s only hope for a win being to slow the pace down and keep the ball out of the hands of Justin Fields and company, I don’t see the Buckeyes being able to score enough points to reach the total. I think Ohio State will win by double digits, but closer to the 27-14 range than the 36-21 range that Vegas is predicting. Expect Wisconsin to struggle to score points and Ohio State to not possess the ball enough to sniff 40.
The pick: Under 57
Last week, Technician Staff Writer Will Thornhill went 0-3 as the Wolfpack was stomped by UNC-Chapel Hill, Virginia Tech fell to its in-state rivals for the first time since 2003, and Oklahoma kept Oklahoma State at arm’s length to cover the 13.5 spread.
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