Determining which women’s basketball teams deserve to be a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament is tough when there are so many good teams to consider. Each team has their own perceived strengths and weaknesses, but the one thing they all share is their ability to win games this season.
It is so hard to differentiate skill levels between these teams, but the best criteria for this sort of measurement is to look at each team’s schedule or resume. Even if a team is considered “better” than another team battling for that top spot, if their schedule proves otherwise, the NCAA selection committee won’t make them a top seed. With that established, I will be following that same line of reasoning when determining which teams deserve to be a No. 1.
Connecticut: 24-1
Death, taxes and UConn basketball dominating
For a team synonymous with women’s basketball, it’s jarring when you realize UConn hasn’t won an NCAA crown since 2016, a long drought by the Huskies’ standards. But make no mistake, this is still the same dominant UConn squad as your grandfather’s UConn teams, and it proved that in the regular season with just a single blemish on the resume.
Twenty-four is a lot of anything, especially wins for a college basketball team, and that’s what gives UConn the No. 2 spot in the most recent NET rankings (through March 8). If you want to make the case for UConn to be a No. 1 seed in the tournament, you don’t have to; its schedule does it for you. The Huskies have the fewest losses out of the teams considered for a No. 1, and the sheer dominance of the Huskies against their opponents makes them a lock.
If by some fluke chance UConn doesn’t get a No. 1 seed, it’ll be because of strength of schedule. While the Huskies are second in the NET, a second loss to a weak Big East team could have sent them tumbling down the rankings. Its biggest success was a really good win against the vaunted South Carolina Gamecocks, but after that is a game against a then-No. 17 ranked DePaul team. UConn’s only other challenge this season was a road game against a ranked Arkansas Razorbacks squad, which was a loss.
Still, there’s something to be said for having the fewest losses of all the best teams in the country, and if that doesn’t get you a No. 1 seed, what’s the point of having a regular season?
Verdict: Yes, UConn will get a No. 1 seed.
Stanford – 25-2
Not having Stanford as a one-seed would be a cardinal sin
The only reason UConn hasn’t been named the presumptive favorite for the title, and why there’s a debate for which basketball team is the best in the country, is because of how great Stanford has played this season. Even with UConn in the field, there’s still an argument to be made for the best team in the country for the Stanford Cardinal.
Stanford somehow earned more victories than the Huskies. Twenty-five wins in a good Pac-12 conference is nothing to sneeze at, and I’m sure the committee will take that into consideration. The NET rankings have already considered that, and that’s why Stanford holds the top spot there. And with all the debate over whether UConn’s strength of schedule merits a high ranking, there are no such arguments made against the Cardinal, with Stanford beating top-15 teams such as Arizona, UCLA and Oregon — and each of them twice.
They have a bad loss to a mediocre Colorado team, but a 6-1 record proves Stanford belongs in the upper echelon of teams. The Cardinal has proved all year it deserves to be in the discussion for a No. 1 overall ranking, let alone a No. 1 seed in the tournament. So, if UConn is a virtual lock to be a No. 1, then Stanford being a No. 1 seed is a given.
Verdict: Yes, Stanford will get a No. 1 seed.
South Carolina – 22-4
The chances this team gets a No. 1 seed have gone south
The Gamecocks were on the short list of potential national champions going into this season, and they still are, but the criteria to be national champions and be a No. 1 seed are different. South Carolina figures to have a tough time getting one of those coveted one-seeds.
Let’s start with the positives: The Gamecocks have seven wins against then-ranked opponents in the regular season. The four losses they have are all against ranked teams, and they managed to keep those games competitive. Finally, South Carolina won the SEC Tournament, and winning the conference championship goes a long way towards cementing No. 1 seed status.
However, there are factors outside of South Carolina’s control that prevent it from getting a one-seed, namely the dominance of UConn and Stanford. The play of the Huskies and the Cardinal have virtually left only two spots for the rest of the field to compete for. South Carolina lost to one of the teams competing for those spots, NC State, and other teams like Baylor and Maryland have more impressive resumes. There’s a lot that needs to happen for South Carolina to be the top team in their bracket, specifically, both Baylor and Maryland not winning their conference tournaments, and that’s too high of a bar for me.
Verdict: No, South Carolina will not earn a No. 1 seed.
Louisville – 23-3, Texas A&M – 23-2
Misery loves company, and these two teams will have fun facing tough teams in the Elite Eight
I grouped Louisville and Texas A&M together because I find their resumes to be similar. Both have a smattering of wins against ranked opponents, and both have the same fatal flaw which gives them both the same verdict.
Louisville has a few wins against ranked opponents, and so does TAMU, though the Aggies have them in greater abundance and against better opponents. Regardless of the quality of their wins, both have bad losses on their resumes, Florida State in Louisville’s case and LSU in the case of TAMU.
Both still might’ve been No. 1 seeds if not for one thing: They didn’t win their conference championships. Louisville came the closest, losing by two points to a great NC State team in the championship, so the Cardinals have an outside chance at getting a one-seed if both Baylor and Maryland implode. Still, not having a conference championship would diminish their resume when comparing the Cardinals to other teams like South Carolina. In the case of TAMU, not even making the conference championship game ruined any chance of the Aggies getting a top spot. For that reason, I just don’t see either of these teams overtaking NC State, Maryland or Baylor at this stage.
Verdict: Neither team will get a top spot.
Maryland – 21-2
Slow and steady wins the race, and these turtles may have won the race for a one-seed
The Terps are one of those teams that control their destiny but aren’t a lock for a No. 1 seed just yet. Maryland’s schedule hasn’t concluded yet, so it’s hard to know for sure, but there’s a strong argument to be made that if Maryland wins out and wins the Big 10 championship, they’ll be the highest seed in their side of the bracket.
With a couple of wins against ranked teams, the Terrapins have the prototypical No. 1 resume. Even the losses Maryland suffered weren’t at all bad: A two-point loss to a top-20 Ohio State team didn’t affect the perception of Maryland as a good team, and an early loss to upstart Missouri State hasn’t been as detrimental as previously thought.
The Big 10 Tournament provides a good opportunity to beat some good schools, including Ohio State and the Michigan Wolverines, who the Terps have already beat this season and have a high enough ranking to vault Maryland into the top four if they beat them again. With an opportunity to pick up more wins in the conference tournament, it’s hard keeping the Terrapins from a one-seed. If they don’t, it provides room for a team like NC State to leapfrog them.
Verdict: Yes, if they win their conference championship, which is highly likely, Maryland will be a No. 1 seed. If not, then no.
NC State – 20-2
Made quite the State-ment with its rollercoaster play this season
Along with Maryland and Baylor, NC State is one of those teams I believe has a real shot at competing for the one-seeds not occupied for Stanford or UConn. To its credit, the Wolfpack has done everything in its power to put itself in position for one of those No. 1 seeds: NC State won the ACC title over a really good Louisville squad and consistently beat its opponents for the most part. There’s one thing on NC State’s resume that sets them apart from the rest of the pack, however, and that’s two wins against No.1-ranked teams: the aforementioned Louisville Cardinals (the first of two NC State wins over the highly touted Cardinals) and the South Carolina Gamecocks.
But alas, the committee not only uses quality wins when determining seeding but also the quality of their losses, and NC State dropped not only one but two stinkers to mediocre teams. At such a critical juncture, and with little room for error, losing to North Carolina and Virginia Tech really pulled the Wolfpack back, even if they avenged those losses. Unlike South Carolina, NC State only needs one of either Baylor or Maryland to lose to guarantee a one-seed, but a one-seed is by no means set in stone for the Wolfpack.
Verdict: Maybe — the path to a No. 1 seed for NC State exists, but as of now, I’m inclined to lean toward the Wolfpack not getting a one-seed.
Baylor – 22-2
Everything’s bigger in Texas, including the chances of getting a one-seed
The Baylor Lady Bears don’t necessarily have the strongest resume to warrant giving them a No. 1 seed. Instead, the still-technically reigning champions rested their laurels on a high preseason ranking to give them the aura of being a top team. Thus far this season, the Lady Bears have given the committee no indication they should think otherwise. Losses to a ranked Arkansas team and a decent Iowa State squad haven’t done enough to get rid of that aura of invincibility.
The Lady Bears have registered just one win against a ranked opponent all season, but they have the chance to add a few more in the Big 12 Tournament. Like Maryland, Baylor will more than likely earn a No. 1 seed if it wins its conference championship. If they manage to come across West Virginia, Oklahoma State or Iowa State, good teams that boost Baylor’s reputation further, it’ll further solidify Baylor’s standing as a No. 1 seed.
Verdict: Yes, if they win their conference championship, which is almost definite, Baylor will be a No. 1 seed. If no, then Maryland losing is necessary for the Lady Bears to make it in.
Most Likely Scenario
No. 1 seeds: Stanford, UConn, Baylor, Maryland
No. 2 seeds: NC State, South Carolina, Louisville, Texas A&M
