Despite many predictions, NC State women’s basketball managed to snag a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That gives NC State a potentially easier path to the Final Four, but every journey starts with a single step, and for the Wolfpack, that step is a game against the North Carolina A&T Aggies Sunday, March 21 at 4 p.m. on ESPN.
First Round – No. 1 NC State vs. No. 16 N.C. A&T
N.C. A&T emerged from MEAC as conference champions and sported a 14-2 record overall. In 16 games, the Aggies have crossed the 70-point plateau nine times, including a 102-36 win against Averett. This team can move up and down the court quickly, with five players averaging at least eight points per game.
The player who makes the Aggies tick is Deja Winters, leading the Aggies in points per game with 14.9. She’s also the team’s lone volume 3-point shooter, taking nine 3s per game and sinking a little over three of them.
Jayla Jones-Pack is the defensive presence inside the Aggies, rejecting 2.5 shots per game. Jones-Pack and Chanin Scott team up to grab most of this team’s rebounds, combining for almost 16 boards per contest. Scott is also the second-leading scorer behind Winters at 13.7 points per game.
What Ifs
Second Round – No. 8 South Florida/No. 9 Washington State
If NC State has good fortune for getting past the Aggies, it will face the winner of the South Florida-Washington State game. South Florida has the potential to be a giant slayer, nearly coming up with an upset over an eventual No. 1 seed in Baylor early in the season, and then defeating a then-No. 6 Mississippi State team, before proceeding to romp the rest of its AAC schedule.
PAC-12 minnow Washington State has entered its first NCAA Tournament in 30 years after middling play over the course of the season, but it got in off impressive wins over Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona, as well as a close loss to Oregon. However, both teams have only a small chance to crash the Wolfpack’s Sweet 16 party.
Sweet 16 – No. 4 Indiana/No. 5 Gonzaga
The first real threat to the Wolfpack comes in the Sweet 16, where it is likely it’ll face off against either Gonzaga or Indiana. While it’s worth noting Gonzaga doesn’t have that signature win that could scare NC State, the Bulldogs did play South Carolina close early in the year and have a nice one-two scoring punch of Jill Townsend and Jenn Wirth, who combined for over 26 points per game this season.
Indiana didn’t dominate its conference like Gonzaga, but it collected several marquee wins against nationally-ranked teams: No. 21 Northwestern, No. 11 Michigan and No. 14 Ohio State. Like South Florida and Washington State, these teams have proven they can take down any team in the country. But unlike South Florida and Washington State, Indiana and Gonzaga pose more of a threat, whether it’s through it’s scoring prowess in the case of Gonzaga or the sheer number of wins against ranked opponents in the case of Indiana.
Elite Eight – No. 2 Texas A&M/No. 3 Arizona
The Elite Eight is the first game where NC State could foreseeably lose, most likely going against either Texas A&M or Arizona. The Arizona Wildcats have consistently been a top-10 team all season and have the wins to show for it, such as the two wins over similarly-ranked Oregon and UCLA teams.
Aari McDonald lit it up for the Wildcats this season, scoring almost 20 points a game, though at an unusually poor 38.9% from the field. A game plan for NC State to beat Arizona would involve keeping McDonald’s shooting splits low while preventing the other Wildcats from benefiting from the open looks.
Texas A&M beat the vaunted South Carolina Gamecocks in its regular season finale and, of these two teams, has the best chance to beat NC State. NC State can beat these teams and would probably be favored to do so, but these games are likely to have coin-flip odds as opposed to the near-certain victories NC State would have earlier in the bracket.
Final Four
If it ran the table to the coveted Final Four, the team that could be waiting in the semifinal matchup is UConn. With all due respect to the River Walk region two-seed Baylor, UConn sliced through its regular season and conference tournament to the tune of a 24-1 record.
From the other side, Stanford has been the best team overall, but in a tournament like this, anyone could strike it hot and make a run. South Carolina, Maryland, UCLA or a number of other strong teams in Texas could also make the final. Either way, the journey begins this weekend.
