This weekend, the No. 10 NC State women’s basketball team will make the short trip to Greensboro for the ACC Tournament. As the No. 2 seed, the Wolfpack (25-4, 14-4 ACC) will get a double-bye into the quarterfinals, where it will take on the winner of No. 7 seed Georgia Tech vs. No. 15 seed Pittsburgh. Here’s what to look for as NC State attempts to win its first ACC championship in nearly 30 years.
Quarterfinals: Georgia Tech (19-10, 10-8 ACC)
The overwhelming favorite to face the Wolfpack in the quarterfinals is Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets already beat NC State once, marching into Reynolds Coliseum and emerging with a 65-61 win. Georgia Tech guard Francesca Pan scored 30 points in that game, as the Wolfpack had no answer for her all-around game. Pan played over her head that afternoon, shooting 11% higher from the field and 20% higher from deep than her season averages. If either of NC State’s guards, senior Aislinn Konig or junior Kai Crutchfield, can slow Pan down, the Yellow Jackets will have to rely on any of their three players scoring 10-plus points per game. 6-foot-4 forward Lorela Cubaj scored just one point and grabbed two rebounds in the game against NC State, but she’s averaging 10 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Slowing her down again will be no easy task for sophomore center Elissa Cunane and junior forward Kayla Jones.
Semifinals: Duke (18-11, 12-6 ACC) or Boston College (18-11, 11-7 ACC)
NC State is likely to face the No. 3 seed Blue Devils for a rubber match or the No. 6 seed Eagles, who have improved significantly since the two teams played in the first ACC game of the season. Led by ACC Coach of the Year Joanna Bernabei-McNamee, Boston College won eight of its last 10 games to finish the year, surging into the ACC Tournament after starting conference play 3-5.
The frontcourt combo of forwards Taylor Soule and Emma Guy is lethal, scoring 14.2 and 13.4 points respectively, while also averaging over a combined 14 rebounds per game. Both of them like to do their work down low in the paint, as neither has hit a single 3-pointer on the year. Cunane and Jones will have to be ready for a battle in the post if Boston College advances to the ACC semifinals. The Eagles play a two-in, three-out offense, and their three out are lethal shooters. Guards Makayla Dickens, Cameron Swartz and Marnelle Garraud have combined for 135 made 3-pointers and shoot at a 33% clip on high volume. None of the Wolfpack guards can afford to lose the Eagles’ shooters in transition.
The most likely ACC semifinals scenario for NC State is a rubber match with Duke. The Wolfpack narrowly took the first game 63-60 inside Cameron Indoor Stadium, and the Blue Devils repaid the favor at Reynolds Coliseum with a 70-65 win. Duke guard Haley Gorecki is one of the best players in the country, and she’s played her best against NC State. Gorecki scored 45 points in the two games and created problems the Wolfpack has not been able to solve. Despite throwing Konig, Crutchfield and wing Jakia Brown-Turner at Gorecki to try and slow her down, nothing has worked.
Gorecki’s bag is deep, and she’s going to get hers in a potential rubber match. If NC State wants to win, it needs to stop Duke’s supporting cast. In the Wolfpack’s win, only two other players scored more than five points, and it took them 28 shots to score 26 points. However, in the Wolfpack’s loss, three other players scored 10-plus points, and they did so efficiently, with 52/67/83 splits. NC State can’t afford for a number of players other than Gorecki to have good games as well.
Championship: Louisville (27-3, 16-2 ACC)
After a mini two-game losing streak, the No. 1 seed Cardinals are back and as good as they’ve been all season. Since sixth woman Yacine Diop returned from Senegalese national team commitments, Louisville hasn’t lost; the Cardinals have won six games in a row, including a 66-59 win over NC State when the Wolfpack was ranked No. 4. With ACC Player of the Year Dana Evans running the offense, Louisville’s elite shoots 46% from the field and 35% from downtown.
Evans averages nearly 18 points per game and shoots 42% from deep, but she’s only one part of the Cardinals’ two-headed scoring backcourt. Jazmine Jones averages 14.1 points per game on wildly efficient 55/38/76 splits and creates serious matchup problems for the Wolfpack. Jones scored 19 points on 7-for-11 shooting in the teams’ prior matchup, and she’s too big for guards Konig and Crutchfield, but too fast for wing Brown-Turner.
Down low, Louisville has the behemoth that is Kylee Shook. Standing 6-foot-4 and immovable in the post, Shook wrecked Cunane the first time these teams met. The first-team All-ACC Cunane had the worst game of her career, shooting just 1 for 12 from the field and failing to score inside the paint as Shook affected every one of her shots. Shook blocked seven shots that game and earned a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds, dominating all game in the post. No buckets will be easy buckets for the Wolfpack in a potential ACC Tournament championship game, and every defensive possession will require 100% effort.