You don’t need to be an expert bracketologist to know the NC State men’s basketball team’s resume going into the NCAA Tournament was pretty scant just a week ago, especially on the heels of a heartbreaking 71-68 loss to Boston College. 

And then the Duke game happened, and all of a sudden the Wolfpack got that signature win they needed to qualify for the tournament. The magnitude of the win was so large, even a narrow 67-61 to then-No. 8 Florida State wasn’t enough to slide NC State back outside the tournament picture, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. 

The remaining schedule suggests a primrose path the rest of the way for the Wolfpack: two home games against uninspiring Pitt and Wake Forest teams, a game on the road against a reeling UNC team (but in a tough Dean Dome atmosphere) and a trip to Cameron Indoor for a rematch against a Duke squad looking for retribution. I can’t expect the Pack to recreate some of that magic against Duke, but given the toughness of the games remaining, a 3-1 record isn’t only ideal, but a reasonable ask for a team that seems to be peaking at the right time. 

Still, going 3-1 in the remaining schedule would put NC State at 20-11 for the season and 11-9 in the ACC. Is that enough to get in? Maybe. But should the team leave it up to a committee to determine whether they’re good enough for the tournament? Absolutely not. 

There have certainly been more impressive teams that missed out on the big dance in recent years. In 2018, the Saint Mary’s Gaels, despite a win against then-No. 13 Gonzaga and winning 28 games in the regular season, couldn’t get into the NCAA Tournament and had to settle for the NIT. Despite losing to Utah in the NIT Quarterfinals, the question, if Saint Mary’s should’ve been in that position at all, persisted. How could a team that was ranked in the top 25 for almost the entirety of the second half of the season not end up in a tournament with the best 68 teams in the country? Your guess is as good as mine.

And of course, who could forget the debacle that happened last season with NC State, when a 24-11 (9-9 ACC) record and a win over eventual Final Four participant Auburn wasn’t enough to scrape into the tournament. 

Right now NC State is right on that bubble and the tournament committee will decide whether the Wolfpack is going to the dance or not. 

But it doesn’t have to be this way, because with a good showing at the ACC Tournament, the power to make that decision can be taken away from the committee, and they’ll have no choice but to place the Wolfpack in the top 68. 

Let’s say the Wolfpack loses in its next matchup to Duke, a reasonable outcome given the Blue Devils’ considerable talent. The ACC, while not as stacked as years in the past, has plenty of teams the Wolfpack could upset in the conference tournament to boost its credibility. A win in a third game against Duke may very well erase the effects of a potential Duke loss in the regular season. A Louisville-NC State game could serve as a litmus test for how well the Pack measures up to the best in college basketball. Florida State, while highly regarded, is a team that looked beatable at times in its matchup against the Wolfpack last Saturday. Even though Virginia has fallen off since last year, it’s still a very good team and a second win against them may add to the Wolfpack’s case to be in.

But a win against Duke, Louisville, Florida State or even Virginia is easier said than done, and it may just be the case that the Pack won’t get another win of that magnitude for the rest of the season. But there are plenty of ACC teams in a similar position as NC State, and wins against them not only boost NC State’s standing as a potential NCAA Tournament team but can eliminate some of the Wolfpack’s competition for those last few tournament slots. Repeat performances against Syracuse, Notre Dame or Clemson could do the trick — and since NC State is 0-2 against Georgia Tech this year, a win against it could take back that ‘tiebreaker’ the Yellow Jackets have over the Wolfpack, in the event they make a late-season push.

Even against teams in the lower echelons of the ACC, the Wolfpack could stand to gain brownie points in defeating them. As it stands now, NC State has an 8-8 record in conference play — because, for every win against Duke, there’s a loss to Boston College. Avenging earlier losses in the season to UNC, Boston College and Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament could lessen the sting and remove the stigma of having ‘bad losses’ come Selection Sunday. Beating up on Wake Forest, Pitt or Miami by large margins may have the same effect as squeaking by a team competing for a tournament spot.

There are four games left in the regular season for NC State, and the opportunities to improve are growing few and far between. A 3-1 record the rest of the way, heck maybe even a 4-0 record, doesn’t guarantee a spot in the NCAA Tournament. However, the Wolfpack can get the chance to beat a ranked opponent, eliminate some of its competition, avenge its losses from earlier in the season, and get some massive wins against teams in the bottom of the barrel if it plays well in the ACC Tournament. 

If that happens, then maybe the Wolfpack can earn an at-large bid, make it to the big dance, and have a chance to win the national championship. And in a sport where a lot is determined by skill but even more is determined by luck, all any team ever wants is that chance — a chance to play and prove themselves.

Of course, the Pack can make things a lot easier if they show up to the ACC Tournament, win the whole darn thing, and qualify automatically.