One day before the general election, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is sitting on a 6-plus percent lead, up at 50.6 percent to the 44.3 percent hold from his opponent, Sen. John McCain, according to Pollster.com’s average of reputable polling agencies.
But these numbers, taken from randomized polls, could have a higher margin of error than pollsters calculate — polls with a sample size of 1,100, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent — due in part to the Bradley effect, Kenneth Pollock, a professor of statistics said.
The term originates from Los Angeles, Calif.’s 1982 mayoral election, in which exit polls showed Tom Bradley, the black Democratic candidate, leading the race by a wide margin.
Final results show Bradley had actually lost the close election to George Deukmejian, the white Republican candidate.
Although the numbers were taken from exit polls — Pollster’s results come primarily from randomized telephone surveys — Pollock said the phenomenon is something he and other statisticians will be looking for in this election.
“There is the potential for people to lie to pollsters. For this election, that could occur in the form of the Bradley effect,” Pollock said. “There is a real concern in this election is whether there will be more people lying to the pollsters because of their hidden racism. There could be some people that wouldn’t admit to a pollster that they wouldn’t vote for Barack Obama because he’s black.”
But to some, the Bradley effect is only theoretical and will not be a factor in the election.
One of those is Michelle Obama, wife of the Democratic presidential candidate.
On Larry King Live in early October, King prompted Michelle to talk about whether she believed the Bradley effect was a factor in preventing her husband’s election to the White House.
“Look where we are, Larry. Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee. If there was going to be a Bradley effect, or it was going to be in play, Barack wouldn’t be the nominee,” she said. “We have to focus on the country as it is. That was several decades ago. And I think that there’s been growth and movement.”
She said although there will be people who will never vote for Obama, there will also be people who will never vote for McCain.
“Right now, people are so focused on what is the fate of our country, not just here domestically, but internationally,” she said. “And I just believe that the issues are going to weigh in people’s hearts more so as they go into the voting booths this time around, than anything else.”
Sarah Kessinger, a freshman in First Year College, said she thinks the effect has actually reversed itself, and “hidden racism” won’t play a part in this Tuesday’s election results.
“It seems like now, people are the reverse,” she said. “They want to vote for [Obama] because they feel like they’re doing the right thing.”
Kessinger was part of a survey earlier in the year that asked how respondents felt about certain aspects of McCain, Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton.
“They asked if I would have a problem with a black president or an older president,” she said. “I said no to both. I don’t care as long as they stand firm on what they say and act on it.”
