This year’s March Madness is sure to be a little bittersweet for Wolfpack fans, as the streak of five straight tournament invites ended on Sunday in Tampa, Fla.
But being the basketball fans we are, a lot of us will skip class (or be tempted to) once the Madness begins on Thursday anyway.
So that makes today the final day to submit our brackets. Bragging rights, money or even both are on the line.
Now if you like picking winners based on which has the cooler mascot — you might want to keep reading this because it’s time for some tournament tips.
Tip No. 1: If your bracket doesn’t have a 12-seed beating a 5-seed — change it.
The disparity between these particular seeds has closed greatly over recent years. At least one 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in each of the last six years.
If you don’t have at least one of these in your bracket, you’re not giving yourself a chance. Butler needs to watch its back.
Tip No. 2: Pick 1-seeds in moderation.
It has been nothing short of mind-boggling to see all the attention placed on who were going to be the No. 1 seeds.
Last year’s Final Four had no No. 1-seeds. In fact, in the past four years, just four No. 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four.
This year has had few teams that have looked truly dominant from start to finish; so please, amidst all the hype, don’t forget abut the 61 others.
Tip No. 3: At-large mid-major teams are pretty darn good, but it’s a down year.
There just aren’t that many — six in all.
And the good ones usually crumble due to the added pressure to justify their seedings since they didn’t win their conference tournament.
I like Southern Illinois, but the odds aren’t with me. In fact, 12-seed Old Dominion probably has a better chance of making noise this year because we expect far less from them.
Pick maybe one mid-major at-large team to advance to the Sweet 16, but don’t pick many more than that — heck, there’s only six.
It’s amazing that in spite of what George Mason did last year, the committee actually invited less darlings in favor of teams like Stanford and Illinois — but I digress.
Tip No. 4: Correctly picking inconsistent teams will nickel and dime your way to winning.
Far too often a team will play the game of its life only to lay an egg the next time out.
Two years ago N.C. State sputtered into the dance, beat the defending champs only to get rocked in the Sweet 16.
Last year, Syracuse won four games in four days in their conference tournament, went from bubble team to five seed, then lost in the first round.
We know these schizophrenic up-and-down teams like Vanderbilt and Virginia aren’t going to win it all, but exactly how many they win is far less certain. Will they win three games or none at all?
Picking precisely how far they go will determine how well you do in your pool.
Tip No. 5: If a team can’t play defense, its not going very far.
Since No. 4 was more of a caution than a tip, I’m going to be very direct on this one.
If a team gets into tons of high-scoring shootouts in the regular season, it will not be well-rounded enough to make it to the Final Four — it’s as simple as that.
Remember Wake Forest in 2005? West Virginia delivered a stunning upset in the second round over the Deacs.
You can’t trade baskets against this kind of competition over a six-game stretch and expect to win them all.
Arizona will be fortunate to make it to the second round the way it’s given up points.
And if Carolina meets with Texas, watch out. The Heels dare teams to drive around them, but don’t have defensive-minded players like it did in the ’05 run, and the Longhorns have players who can scorch opponents when they’re allowed to slash into the lane.
Tip No. 6 : Your national champ can’t have weaknesses.
While we’re on the subject of being well-rounded, name me the last national champion who wasn’t solid all the way across?
Besides being good on D, all of them had good ball handlers, tough post men that rebounded well and their wings scored efficiently.
So if a team has a lack of post punch (Wisconsin), it will likely do what Ohio State did last year and exit before the second weekend.
Now that Ohio State has a post presence it’s been lethal, but don’t score nearly as much as you would think. It scored 80-plus points in just two conference games, and it’s a chink in the armor that might haunt them — pick it for your national champ if you want, but I don’t see it.
Tip No. 7: It really goes without saying, but don’t copy my Final Four.
Unless you’re really picking games due to mascot hierarchy (and if you are, how can you not like the Nevada Wolf Pack?). I’ve got Florida, Kansas, Georgetown and Memphis in the Final Four, with Kansas beating Memphis 78-69.
I also have Tennessee beating Ohio State; Virginia Commonwealth knocking off Duke and Pitt; and UNLV downing Wisconsin.
Look, you’re never going to get them all right, so my last tip is to have some fun with it and take some chances — this way if any of the upset specials come true you can guarantee looking like a genius at least once.