On Thursday the NC State men’s basketball team will be taking on its biggest test of the season so far when it faces off against the Auburn Tigers. 

Both teams have changed significantly since the last time they met. With the Tigers trying to avenge a 78-71 loss to NC State in 2018, this game should be a close one. 

History of the Series

Last year the Pack met the Tigers for the 5th game between the two schools. Auburn was riding high on their start to the season, boasting a 9-1 record and being nationally ranked at 7th in the AP poll.

The difference in the game was the 3-ball, as Auburn only shot 20 percent from beyond the arc. Pair that with the fact that NC State played its best game of the year and shot 45% from 3 and you get a game that really was never that close, despite the final score only being a seven point score differential.

The Tigers were never able to find their rhythm and NC State capitalized. Now senior guard Markell Johnson hit five three-pointers and finished with a career high 27 points in the win. It was his best game of the 2018 season. 

With the win last year, NC State moved to 4-1 all time against Auburn. From 1969-1975 the teams met three times, with Auburn’s only win coming in 1970. 

After a 1975 win in Raleigh for the Pack, the two teams did not meet until 2009 when NC State escaped a game in Auburn with a two point victory. 

Although the all time series is clearly in the Pack’s favor, every game the two programs have met in have been close as 7 points has been the biggest point differential in the history of the series.  

If history is a reliable indicator, then the Pack is in for another close game on Thursday. 

Looking for signature wins

The Wolfpack is coming off a very nice stretch of wins currently. After beating Wisconsin, Wake Forest, and UNCG on a memorable last second heave from Johnson, the Pack has put itself in a great position after dropping two early games to Memphis and Georgia Tech. 

Last year the NCAA selection committee claimed that the reason NC State did not make the tournament was due to a lack of signature wins. A win on Thursday would give the Pack one of the wins that they will be looking for come March. While the Wisconsin and UNCG wins were nice, both teams were not on the level of this undefeated and 12th nationally ranked Auburn team. 

In 2017 head coach Kevin Keatts was able to pull out wins against elite teams such as Arizona, Duke, and UNC-Chapel Hill. If Keatts can get a win against the Tigers in Auburn, then the team will only be helping itself improve its tournament resume with the addition of also finding itself in the AP Top 25 poll on Monday. 

It’s been awhile

An interesting topic that has to be talked about before Thursday is NC State’s struggles on the road in non conference play. While the last three decades have not been particularly kind to NC State men’s basketball, the program has struggled significantly on the road against ranked non conference teams. 

In fact, the last time that the Wolfpack has gotten a road win against a ranked non conference opponent was all the way back in 2001 in a 82-68 rout against a No. 9 ranked Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome. 

It has been so long since NC State has won against a non conference ranked road team that the last team they did it against was a team that is now in the ACC. 

It’s safe to say that the Pack are due to end the drought, but winning against this Auburn team will be no easy task. 

The 2019 Tigers

While certainly not as talented as the 2018 team that reached the final four and won the SEC championship, this Auburn team still certainly has the ability to make some noise this year. 

The team lost key players Jared Harper and Chuma Okeke to the pros, but many returners have stepped up to fill their production. 

Guard Samir Doughty has had a breakout year in his final season of eligibility. His 17.3 points per game is a big reason that Auburn is still undefeated. Doughty and fellow senior center Austin Wiley have formed a formidable 1-2 punch that has been tough to keep up with for most opponents. 

While perhaps not as talented as the 2018 squad, this team hustles and possesses the ability to score in bunches. For NC State to win this game, it is going to take a team effort to leave Auburn with a win. 

How the Pack matches up

Auburn and NC State are two very similar teams. Both squads run the floor well, shoot a lot of 3s, and have very balanced scoring attacks. The Tigers have struggled with teams such as South Alabama, Furman, and Saint Louis, with this mostly having to do with how well Auburn shoots from beyond the arc during the game. 

Something that Keatts will be sure to drill in the heads of his players this week is to defend the 3-point line. While the Pack played well overall in Greensboro last Sunday, not defending beyond the arc efficiently allowed it to be a close game. 

Limiting Wiley and Doughty will be huge for State in this game. Johnson needs to have another big performance on both ends of the floor against Wiley, as he is the biggest offensive threat for the Tigers. Redshirt freshman center Manny Bates will also be sure to have his hands for against Wiley. The 6-11 big man is big enough size wise for Bates to not be at his usual advantage. This will be Bates’s biggest test of the year, and limiting Wiley’s elite rebounding will be a big ask of the redshirt freshman. 

Overall, if NC Stats can accomplish what it did last year in Raleigh against the Tigers, then it will be walking out of Auburn Arena with its first Top 25 win of the season. This game has the opportunity to be a real momentum booster heading into the bulk of ACC play in January. While not being a must win thanks to the current winning streak that the Pack is on, NC State has a great opportunity to help itself and improve its tournament resume Thursday night.